Who's showing up, and what does it mean?

The votes are coming in at a pretty good clip now, representing 61% of the general election total.

The scariest numbers come from District 3, which at 1,786 votes has barely over half of its anemic general election votes. In this case, lack of interest probably benefits the frontrunner, Paul Lopez.

Dist %ofGenElectVotes
CD3 50%
CD7 68%
CD8 61%

But the most interesting numbers are in Council District 8, where Carla Madison seems to be winning the "get out the vote" effort. Turnout in the whiter western neighborhoods is far heavier than in the minority-populated eastern neighborhoods, which could spell trouble for Sharon Bailey.

Neighborhood %ofGenElectVotes
North Capitol Hill 105%
Central Business 89%
City Park West 86%
Five Points 82%
City Park 66%
Cole 64%
Clayton 57%
Northeast Park Hill 55%
Whittier 54%
Skyland 54%
South Park Hill 47%
North Park Hill 42%

If the candidates maintained the percentages received in each neighborhood in the general election, Sharon Bailey would still win by a margin of 54% to 46%... but that probably isn't reassuring, especially if there is something more behind the Madison rush to the polls than just proactive voters.

Hickenlooper gives Nevitt the business

Yesterday's Denver Post issued a missive from George Merritt entitled "Mayor: Candidate flier misleading."

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper delved into the City Council races for the first time today, calling out District 7 candidate Chris Nevitt for "misleading voters."

Nevitt's campaign used a picture of Hickenlooper on its latest flier.

The Nevitt campaign responded that the flier was intended to be light. I guess the Dr Seuss-themed cover and the fanciful rhymes weren't a strong enough tip-off for that, to wit:

Denver parents and teachers think his plans are just super,
and hopefully so does Mayor John Hickenlooper.

Of course, the Watters campaign was elated, thanking the mayor for "setting the record straight." But the bigger story here is the culmination of a threat made by the mayor earlier this month. On May 2nd, the day after the general municipal election, Colorado Pols featured an article entitled "Hick May Pick Sides in One City Council Race." It read, in part:

Hickenlooper doesn't normally make public endorsements of candidates for city office, but there was a lot of talk last night that he would soon endorse Shelly Watters over Chris Nevitt in City Council District 7 because he is uncomfortable with Nevitt's close ties to organized labor.

Anyone who recognizes Hickenlooper's business origin can see that a candidate who would support the larger working community would be an ideological opposite. Still, some insightful comments ensued over at Colorado Pols, none more perspicacious than the first:

Nevitt's base will stay with him, and he only needs to pick another 3.1% to win in the runoff. Shelly has a much higher hill to climb. Nevitt wins this and Hick would be foolish to get involved publically (though everyone knows he was involved behind the scenes).

Hickenlooper involved behind the scenes? You mean Hickenlooper has been actively campaigning against a pro-labor candidate this whole time, perhaps through The Kenney Group, who managed both Shelly Watters' campaign and Hickenlooper's re-election bid with the same large donations from big businesses and land speculators? Say it ain't so.

This background information provides insight into Chris Nevitt's incredulous response to the pseudo-controversy, as quoted in yesterday's Denver Post article:

"A couple people called and said, 'You are implying that John Hickenlooper endorsed you,'" [Nevitt] said.

"I actually called them back and said, 'Nothing could be further from the truth.'"

You can say that again.

Updates on the runoff endorsements

In the three runoff City Council races, frontrunners lead each race by substantial margins. For that reason, the challengers need endorsements from the now-expired candidacies of their general election opponents in order to have any hope of winning.

Council District 3: JoAnn Phillips now has the endorsement of three former candidates: Kathy Sandoval, Mark Roggerman, and Antoinette Alire. These candidates represented 11%, 10%, and 2% of the votes in the May general election. Added to Phillips own total of 15%, this coalition represents 38% of the electorate. Compared against Lopez's 45%, the gap has narrowed considerably. One also wonders whether questions surrounding Lopez's official residency will swing the tide in favor of Phillips.

Council District 7: Julie Connor has declined to endorse either candidate, leaving her 19% of the vote unaccounted for. Shelly Watters is left to battle Chris Nevitt without further support. With Nevitt needing just one sixth of Connor's union-friendly, small-donor constituency to obtain a majority, it's hard to see how Watters could overcome the 20% deficit from the May election, when she received 27% to Nevitt's 47% of the vote.

Council District 8: Greg Rasheed has endorsed Sharon Bailey, doubling Madison's deficit from 8% to 16%. With virtually no news coming out of that race since the May election, there appear to be few dynamics working on Madison's behalf.

Connor declines to endorse in CD7

In Council District 7, Julie Connor has declined to endorse either of the remaining candidates. While the material effect of this decision is to put her supporters "up for grabs," Shelly Watters' candidacy suffers a greater harm. That's because Watters needed the support of Connor's entire base to stay within shouting distance of Chris Nevitt, yet now will have to make up the difference on her own.

Below is an excerpt from Connor's letter to supporters.

Voters groused that it was a field packed so full of smart choices that they couldn’t make up their minds, and indeed we are all experienced and deeply committed to community service. The field has narrowed, but the expertise has not.

For the runoff, rather than direct voters towards one candidate or the other, I am suggesting people think about what aspects are most important for a councilperson to get the job done (responsiveness, experience, philosophy, vision, fight, commitment, ambition, personality, connections, endorsements, confidence, whatever), and then have a conversation with each one to determine which one possesses those requirements/needs/qualifications...

Don’t be reluctant to talk to the candidates: After a five-minute talk with each of them one-on-one, you will get a clear picture of who is going to serve you better. And there aren’t many political candidates who you can actually call and talk to; a City Council race is one of the few with accessible candidates. Plus, regardless of who gets elected, it will be remembered that you were engaged enough to call and sound them out – that’s a constituent who it would be wise to pay attention to down the line.

Most importantly, whoever you decide to vote for, get that ballot back to the Election Commission by Tuesday, June 5 before 7:00 p.m.

Watters picks up endorsement

The Shelly Watters campaign issued a news release yesterday trumpeting the endorsement of Colorado State Senator Ken Gordon:

Denver, CO - Today, Senate Majority Leader Ken Gordon (D-Denver) endorsed Shelly Watters in the City Council District Seven Run-Off Election. Senator Gordon has worked with Shelly since 1999, when she was first an aide to Former Councilwoman Joyce Foster and then Councilwoman Carol Boigon.

"Shelly will be a great asset to Denver's City Council. She is balanced and thoughtful in her approach, and her experience with City processes makes her the best choice to represent the residents of District 7. I enthusiastically endorse Shelly Watters for City Council District 7," said Gordon.

Shelly added, "Senator Gordon is a well-respected public official and I am honored to have the support of someone who has worked so hard for the citizens of Colorado. He understands the issues facing the residents of Denver, from graffiti to improving our schools, and I am thrilled that he believes I am the best choice to address these issues."

Earlier this week, Shelly earned the endorsements of a majority of Neighborhood Association Presidents. Out of the ten Neighborhood Association Presidents, six are supporting Shelly's bid to be the next Councilwoman . The other four Neighborhood Association Presidents have chosen not to endorse a candidate to date.

For full list of Shelly's endorsements please visit www.shellywatters.com

Runoff election polls (May 15th update)

The current runoff election polls are pretty interesting.

In the Council District 3 poll, Paul Lopez leads JoAnne Phillips by 53% to 47%. However, the current margin of just 7% is a rather dramatic departure from Lopez's general election margin of 30%. The close online race is even more impressive given Phillips lack of online presence: she doesn't appear to have a website, has never responded to any posting online, and barely even registered 1% in our March poll of this district.

The real-world margin appears to be holding in our tally of Council District 7 preferences. Chris Nevitt leads by 20, with 60% against Shelly Watters' 40%. This is especially impressive as Nevitt was drubbed by Watters fans in the previous Denver Politics poll of District 7.

The most inverted results were found in the Council District 8 poll, in which Carla Madison leads frontrunner Sharon Bailey with 56% to 44%. This is likely due to the online presence of Madison troops. In the Denver Politics poll of District 8 leading up to the May general election, Madison had an even more commanding lead of 56% versus Bailey's 7%... yet we see how that turned out.

These polls will remain open until June 5th, so be sure to register your preference.

And as always, our disclaimer: "Internet polls are NOT scientific and anyone who suggests otherwise is a fool."

Neighborhood analysis, Council District 7

In Council District 7, Shelly Watters doesn't have a ghost of a chance of winning. As the graph below shows, she only challenged Nevitt's lead in three neighborhoods: Overland, Valverde, and Rosedale. Throughout the rest of the district, including her own Platt Park, she trails by 14% or more.

West Wash Park, Athmar Park, and College View weren't even competitive, with Chris dominating by a margin of more than 30%.

Who's endorsing whom?

There's only one way for this year's crop of runoff candidates to have any chance of winning, and that is by gaining the endorsements of third-tier candidates.

Yet I haven't heard of any such endorsements being made. Have you?

Of course, even if an endorsement is made, there's no guarantee that voters will feel obliged to follow their former favorite's selection. Still, I can't imagine that the Council 8 candidates aren't grasping for the aide of Darrell Watson, that Council 7 candidates would love to have Julie Connor's imprimatur, and that Council 3 candidates aren't seeking a working coalition among all the now-vanquished opponents.

Feel free to leave comments with your thoughts or news.

Who is voting?

The numbers of votes begin to come in. So, who's voting and who's not?

In District 7, a total of 5077 votes have been counted. Though they were just trickling in during the middle of the month, they're now coming in a flood.

In the first two days after ballots were sent, the Electoral Commission received an average of 418 votes per day. The subsequent week, the numbers dipped to just 246 per day. But during the last four days, they began to peak again, reach 555 per day.

Of course, there are disparate records in the different neighborhoods. Whereas neighborhoods like Overland, Speer, and Athmar Park are voting at less than 4%, Platt Park and West Wash Park are hovering around 20%.

For fun, I mashed these numbers against Piton data to find patterns. Details such as the number of persons per household, percentage of elderly, percentage of persons in poverty, percentage of owner-occupied homes, and crime rate were all very bad predictors of these voting percentages.

What did correlate well? Average household income. The chart below shows the average income in blue and voting rates in red:

What does this tell us? Simply that the richer they are, they more they're voting. In fact, if you wanted to get really cynical, you'd wonder whether poor folks are being disenfranchised by the process.

It may not be much of a newsflash, but it's certainly important. Rich folks are deciding the fate of our government, to detriment of the less fortunate.

God bless America.

Predictions found in Westword comics

Westword's Kenny Be has weighed in on the upcoming election, playing on themes of boredom and silliness.

Prospective winners are indicated for all offices, included contested races as Council District 3 (Kathy Sandoval, Paul Lopez), Council District 7 (Shelly Watters, Julie Connor), and Council District 8 (Carla Madison, Darrell Watson).

Then there's the fun made of challengers Waldo Benevidez, Niccolo Casewit, and RJ Ours.

It seems to be all in good fun... and anything that helps to alert folks to the election is a good thing. View the original comic with all its caricatures at Westword's "Worst Case Scenario."

POLL: City Council District 7

Opinion Polls & Market Research

Official Disclaimer: Internet polls are NOT scientific and anyone who suggests otherwise is a fool.

Video Interview: Shelly Watters (CD7)

Colorado Confidential's Kerri Rebrush interviewed Shelly Watters, City Council candidate for Council District 7.

Watters speaks to her personal background and work with former City Council Councilwoman Joyce Foster and current Councilwoman Carol Boigon.

She speaks to her knowledge of zoning and constituent services, and discusses the fun of running for City Council.

As for the locus of her support, she indicates that she is the only candidate who served on a neighborhood board.

Her top issues are safety and graffiti. She indicates that the rebuilding of higher-density homes is a real issue on the east side of Council District 7 (in contrast, Julie Connor and Chris Nevitt see that as an issue on the west side of the district).

She goes on to talk about the public schools and the impact of city government on the daily lives of citizens.

She pledges to locate her Council office in the district itself, instead of downtown at the City & Council Building, as well as meet regularly with the presidents of registered neighborhood organizations.

Video Interview: Chris Nevitt (CD7)

Colorado Confidential's Kerri Rebrush interviewed Chris Nevitt, City Council candidate for Council District 7.

Chris indicates the top issues in District 7 as united around the question of schools, but that the east side of Broadway is more interested in controlling development and the west sides of Broadway is more concerned with crime.

As for his support, Chris mentions politicians, neighbors, and businesses, with a brief mention of his union friends.

Regarding redevelopment, Nevitt supports voluntary downzoning of neighborhood homes to preserve single-family neighborhood quality.

Finally, regarding his unique qualities for City Council, he mentions his ability to create results in a short period of time, referencing negotiations within the Gates redevelopment project.

Video Interview: Julie Connor (CD7)

Colorado Confidential interviewed Julie Connor, City Council candidate for District 7.

Describing the district and her constituent services in Councilwoman Kathleen MacKenzie's office, she jokes that she is a "professional meeting-goer." As for particular accomplishments, she notes improved bicycle pathways in the Gates redevelopment and a new South Broadway business improvement district.

Perhaps the most telling question was what would change in the District 7 council office if Julie were elected. She remarked, "On Monday nights [weekly City Council meetings] I have to sit on the dias and vote. That's how things will change."

She also makes the case for focusing on city government, and how fixing potholes can expand horizons for local residents.

Denver Politics endorses... Julie Connor in District 7

What do you look for in a City Council candidate? We think four things are paramount:

• Intelligence applied to real-world problems
  
• Commitment to public service
  
• Identification with ordinary citizens
  
• Experience in city government

City Council District 7 is fortunate to have several committed candidates. But in terms of the listed characteristics, one stands above the rest: Julie Connor.

Connor knows the ins and outs of city government, having worked in constituent services for outstanding representative Kathleen MacKenzie. She knows each and every major (and minor) question before our district, and she has developed the personal relationships necessary to achieve desired outcomes.

Even more importantly, she identifies with ordinary citizens, helping the advantaged and disadvantaged alike to participate in city government. As a historian, I was impressed by Connor's dedication in finding common ground in the contentious DeBoer Historic District, reconciling divergent interests so that a compromise could be reached.

And she is smart. Watch the forums, read the interviews, and talk with her. She is sharp, alert, and alive with the issues. That's the sort of person I want on City Council.

Chris Nevitt is also a great candidate, with both the "common man" viewpoint and the intelligence to carry through the work, but he has been on the fringes of public policymaking. Meanwhile, Shelly Watters has become a favored candidate, raising lots of money from development interests. But the trust of such well-heeled insiders and politicos leads to questions of access, fairness, and perspective. I want someone who will hear the rest of us: new participants and old hands, small donors and no donors, and previously-excluded as well as seasoned veterans.

Connor has been committed to public service from the Peace Corps to the present day, in wide-ranging issues facing the district in all of its complexity. For all these reasons, we enthusiastically endorse Julie Connor as our next City Councilwoman from Council District 7.

Denver Post endorsements

Again, the Denver Post strikes on the theme of boring elections. The campaigns "have generated only a handful of competitive contests and all too little public interest." How is the public supposed to be interested in a campaign the Denver Post news division does not cover?

Nevertheless, they claim to have been "struck by the quality of candidates who have put themselves forward for city offices." Their endorsements represented frontrunners in every race with just one exception: Council District 3's JoAnn Phillips. Since she has scant been mentioned in this entire campaign, the full text of that endorsement may be helpful:

Our choice is JoAnn Phillips, who has an intimate knowledge of the district gleaned from her service as an aide to former Councilwoman Ramona Martinez. Phillips has solid views on economic development, strengthening neighborhoods and public safety. She faces Kathy Sandoval, Paul Lopez, Mark Roggeman, Ben Romero, Antoinette Alire and Niccolo Casewit.

Their complete list of endorsements is below:

Clerk and Recorder: Stephanie O'Malley
Auditor: Dennis Gallagher
Council District 3: JoAnn Phillips
Council District 4: Peggy Lehmann
Council District 5: Marcia Johnson
Council District 7: Shelly Watters
Council District 8: Carla Madison
Council District 9: Judy Montero
Council At-Large: Carol Boigon and Doug Linkhart
Ballot Question 1A: "Yes"

Divided Council District 7

Daniel Chacon of the Rocky Mountain News has written about the chasm between communities in City Council's District 7.

The article was entitled: "In divided District 7, there are two sides to everything: East, west zones split by wealth, development."

In some ways, [Councilwoman] MacKenzie said, District 7 is "like two different districts."

"On the east side of the river, I get constant complaints about scrape-offs and infill developments because there's so much private investment, and people want it to stop," she said.

"But on the west side of the district, they'd love to have pop tops and scrape-offs and that kind of investment that indicates that people want to stay in the community."

The candidates mainly offered platitudes about spreading the wealth, encouraging redevelopment in the western "areas of change" and supporting the eastern "areas of stability.

In terms of neighborhood character, three of the four were in agreement:

Connor, Watters and Nevitt said they support private investment but would work to preserve neighborhood character.

The fourth candidate, Dennis Smith, a teacher at South High School and the only Republican in the nonpartisan race, said the development in the east side is "a nice problem to have."

Watters was described as "supported by development interests," while "Nevitt and Connor have received campaign contributions from several labor interests" and "Smith is neither soliciting nor accepting campaign contributions."

Biographical sketches and forums below:

JULIE CONNOR
Age: 40
Occupation: Senior analyst for MacKenzie.
Family: Single, no children.
Etcetera: Speaks Spanish and served in the Peace Corps in Paraguay.

CHRIS NEVITT
Age: 45
Occupation: Political economist. Former executive director of the Front Range Economic Strategy Center.
Family: Married, no children.
Etcetera: Born in Thailand and has lived in Africa, Australia and Russia, among other places.

DENNIS SMITH:
Age: 48
Occupation: Teacher at South High School.
Family: Married, two sons, ages 12 and 8.
Etcetera: Serves on the Denver Parks and Recreation advisory board.

SHELLY WATTERS
Age: 61
Occupation: Former aide to at-large Denver City Councilwoman Carol Boigon and former Councilwoman Joyce Foster.
Family: Married, one adult daughter.
Etcetera: The New York native has lived in Denver for more than 30 years.

Prophet predicts

In early March, the Wash Park Prophet predicted victories for Chris Nevitt in Council District 7, Darrell Watson in CD8, and Stephanie O'Malley for Clerk and Recorder. He had no prediction for CD3, and anticipated incumbents would win without a runoff in all other races.

He added to those predictions today, indicating the likelihood of Shelly Watters getting into a CD7 runoff, Carla Madison making the CD8 runoff, and Paul Lopez facing down Ben Romero in a CD3 runoff.

The Prophet's predicted winners all have one thing in common: they are the financial frontrunners in their race. Furthermore, his predicted runners-up all have the second largest coffers. And the races he anticipates to avoid a runoff all have enormous financial divides between the frontrunner and any challengers.

We understand that the "money primary" represents votes - and the opportunity to get more votes. Those facts lead toward the obvious conclusion: candidates with the most money normally win. Nevertheless, simply following the money line doesn't strike us as a terribly inspired "prediction."

But it does lead us to wonder... does the Prophet moonlight as an Accountant?

CD7: In-depth analysis of campaign finances - and by extension, the race itself

Money tells a lot about a candidate. In that spirit, we have analyzed the contributions in the City Council District 7 race to tell a more complete story of this highly-competitive race.

Currently, Nevitt and Watters are battling for supremacy in terms of total dollars raised:

Chris Nevitt $65,209
Shelly Watters $52,723
Julie Connor $21,800

But of course, such raw numbers tell only a small part of the story. Trends over time and changes within the donor base are also crucial. For instance, even at the beginning of the race, there was a great deal of money ($41,775 to be exact). Since then, the scale of monthly contributions has risen somewhat unevenly: Shelly Watters' contributions have diminished while Nevitt has surged and Julie Connor is increasing the pace.

Chris Nevitt has the lead in the total number of contributions, with an especially big surge in March.

But the most significant difference between the candidates is their reliance on big-ticket donors. Whereas both Julie Connor and Chris Nevitt have a roughly even split among their donor base, more than 80% of the contributors to Shelly Watters campaign have donated $250 or more.

Who are the primary donors financing this race? A small number of stalwarts are the real power behind each candidacy, giving maximum $1000 contributions. Below is a list of "maxed out" donors for each candidate:

Shelly Watters: David Kenney, Brad Buchanan, Doug McKinnon, Elaine Berman, Eric Miller, Evan Makovsky, Foster Graham Milstein & Calisher, Greg Stevinson, Harold Grueskin, Harvey Deutsch, Howard Greinetz, Jay Kamlet, Jennifer Watters, Joyce Foster, Marcia Robinson, Marilyn Schwartz, Mark Goldberg, Medical Property Holdings, Norman Brownstein, Paradise Properties, Sage Hospitality, Sheldon Steinhauser, and Sherri Way

Chris Nevitt: Audrey Nevitt, Robert Nevitt, Carpenters Union 55, Chris Mygatt, Colorado Machinists, CSCEW, Firefighters Local 858, Int'l Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, Int'l Union of Painters, James Mauro Jr, Jessica Brady, Joanie Condoret, Jon Condoret, Journeyman Plumbers, Kristen Stoever, Local 720 PAC, NECA, Refrigeration & AC Assoc, Service Employees Local 105, Sheetmetal Workers, Teamsters Municipal PAC, and Transit Union Workers #1001

Julie Connor: Ajay Kapoor, Denver Police, Michael Stratton, Tom Connor, United Food & Commercial Workers

These folks can no longer give. But will they support another candidate? It appears unlikely. Although we often assume that donors give money to multiple candidates ("playing the odds," as it were), that phenomenon has been remarkably limited in this campaign. Of the 799 contributors, only 14 have (so far) given money to more than one candidate.

David Cole ($200 to both Julie & Shelly, $50 to Chris)
Sherri Way ($1000 to Shelly, $250 to Chris)
Jim Jones ($500 to Shelly, $250 to Chris)
Rich Delanoy ($350 to Shelly, $250 to Julie)
Sharon Withers ($250 to Shelly, $50 to Chris)
Charlotte Winzenburg ($200 to Chris, $50 to Julie)
Gertie Grant ($200 to Chris, $25 to Julie)
Joe Cannata ($100 to both Chris & Shelly)
Lynn Pressnall ($100 to Chris, $75 to Julie)
Jeff Leventhal ($100 to Chris, $25 to Shelly)
Brenda McHenry ($50 to Julie, $25 to Shelly)
Sheila Robinson ($50 to Chris, $40 to Shelly)
Tom Parsons ($50 to both Chris & Julie)
Charlie Busch ($50 to both Julie & Shelly)

In the end, we are left with several strong impressions:

• Chris Nevitt has a strong lead in campaign financing, not only because he has the overall margin but because he has energized a wide base of donors. He also has the most institutional support through a variety of union connections.
  
• Shelly Watters' financial backing is dominated by wealthy, business-oriented contributors in the legal and land-development communities. Her initial lead is now lost, and neither the percentage of "maxed out" donors nor the small number of ordinary contributors bodes well.
  
• Julie Connor has the highest percentage of small dollar donations and the smallest percentage of "maxed out" donors. Her finance options are therefore the most promising, with an opportunity to exploit her attractiveness to ordinary voters and/or squeeze higher dollar values from her base. But this financial gap needs to be closed for uninvolved or undecided voters to hear her message.

Candidate forums online

Denver Decides has added many new forums online, so voters can see their respective City Council candidates in action. Among the community forums are the following:

Mayor
Auditor
At-Large Council 3/29
At-Large Council 3/29
Council District # 3
Council District # 4
Council District # 5
Council District # 7
Council District # 8
Council District # 9