In early March, the Wash Park Prophet predicted victories for Chris Nevitt in Council District 7, Darrell Watson in CD8, and Stephanie O'Malley for Clerk and Recorder. He had no prediction for CD3, and anticipated incumbents would win without a runoff in all other races.
He added to those predictions today, indicating the likelihood of Shelly Watters getting into a CD7 runoff, Carla Madison making the CD8 runoff, and Paul Lopez facing down Ben Romero in a CD3 runoff.
The Prophet's predicted winners all have one thing in common: they are the financial frontrunners in their race. Furthermore, his predicted runners-up all have the second largest coffers. And the races he anticipates to avoid a runoff all have enormous financial divides between the frontrunner and any challengers.
We understand that the "money primary" represents votes - and the opportunity to get more votes. Those facts lead toward the obvious conclusion: candidates with the most money normally win. Nevertheless, simply following the money line doesn't strike us as a terribly inspired "prediction."
But it does lead us to wonder... does the Prophet moonlight as an Accountant?