Who's showing up, and what does it mean?

The votes are coming in at a pretty good clip now, representing 61% of the general election total.

The scariest numbers come from District 3, which at 1,786 votes has barely over half of its anemic general election votes. In this case, lack of interest probably benefits the frontrunner, Paul Lopez.

Dist %ofGenElectVotes
CD3 50%
CD7 68%
CD8 61%

But the most interesting numbers are in Council District 8, where Carla Madison seems to be winning the "get out the vote" effort. Turnout in the whiter western neighborhoods is far heavier than in the minority-populated eastern neighborhoods, which could spell trouble for Sharon Bailey.

Neighborhood %ofGenElectVotes
North Capitol Hill 105%
Central Business 89%
City Park West 86%
Five Points 82%
City Park 66%
Cole 64%
Clayton 57%
Northeast Park Hill 55%
Whittier 54%
Skyland 54%
South Park Hill 47%
North Park Hill 42%

If the candidates maintained the percentages received in each neighborhood in the general election, Sharon Bailey would still win by a margin of 54% to 46%... but that probably isn't reassuring, especially if there is something more behind the Madison rush to the polls than just proactive voters.

Neighborhood analysis, Council District 8

The race for City Council District 8 is remarkable for its geographic and racial fault lines.

GEOGRAPHY: Whereas candidate Carla Madison did better than the frontrunner in virtually all of the western neighborhoods, Sharon Bailey dominated in the eastern neighborhoods.
Since Madison lives about a mile further west than Bailey, this result seems counterintuitive. Other factors may well be in play, including the professional and social networks of the candidates. But the demographic composition of the district is also important.

RACE: The neighborhoods won by African-American candidate Sharon Bailey are overwhelmingly comprised of blacks and Latinos. Overall, those neighborhoods are 85% minority population. Bailey prevailed in only one non-minority neighborhood: Cole, which is just 50.2% white.

Meanwhile, the neighborhoods won by white Carla Madison are just 33% minority. The only minority neighborhood in which she prevailed was Five Points.

It may seem surprising that Madison beat a field of three African-American candidates in Denver's historic black community, but this result underlines racial factors. Even 7 years ago (as gentrification was getting started), just 25% of Five Points residents were black. 27% were white and 43% were Latino.

That mirrors a larger trend in the area. Though Council District 8 has been "the black seat" on City Council for the last 50 years, it's now racially mixed. As of 2000, the district as a whole housed 24,130 African Americans, 21,656 whites, and 18,504 Latinos.

THE FUTURE: What does all this imply about the runoff? One possibility is that it won't be about black and white. Instead, this seat may hinge on Latinos.

Madison did well enough to win in North Capitol Hill and Five Points (23% and 43% Latino), but Bailey crushed in Clayton and Skyland (50% and 22% Latino). The only question is, ¿quién ganará en junio?

POLL: Council District 8 runoff

Opinion Polls & Market Research

Official Disclaimer: Internet polls are NOT scientific and anyone who suggests otherwise is a fool.

Ready, set, spend!

In the upcoming runoff election, the amount of money raised isn't as important as how much they have left.

The figures reflect each candidate's April 24th statement, so we should expect that the candidates spent some of this money before the general election ended. Still, the graph gives a good indicator both of the depth of their fundraising and the potential reserves for their upcoming runoff election.

For instance, although Nevitt raised significantly more funds than Watters, his financial reserves were just $2,400 more. Meanwhile, in District 3, Lopez retained an overwhelming advantage both in total fundraising and reserves.

RMN runs down the election and previews the runoffs

And the big story of the day from the Rocky Mountain News? Well, of course "It's the Hickenlooper waltz" by Daniel Chacon.

After a brief rundown of the results, Chacon records "some memorable moments."

* A postal worker drove up to the Denver Election Commission office in his postal truck and dropped off his ballot in the all-mail contest.

"We thought it was kind of weird," worker Judy Hodges said.

• Voters complained that a pro-immigrant march prevented them from dropping off their ballots at commission headquarters.

"What incompetent idiot approved a parade down our street on Election Day?" asked Election Commissioner Susan Rogers. "Do you realize they're blaming us for it? Like we approve parades now, apparently. There's a posting on (a political blog) accusing us of disenfranchising voters by having a parade through here."

• People did double takes when they saw Gov. Bill Ritter standing in line at the Election Commission waiting to apply for an emergency ballot.

His ballot was mailed to his home in Platt Park. Ritter and his family moved into the Governor's Mansion this year, but he hadn't updated his address.

Ritter posed for pictures with election workers who were sporting festive boas and cowboy hats. Tuesday was "hat day" for commission workers, who wore exotic headgear while counting ballots.

Astoundingly, the News then did something uncharacteristic: provided more hard data about the issues now in front of the voters, profiling the 6 candidates still in the race for election in the June 5 runoff. Each candidate was briefly profiled and asked the following questions:

• Biggest challenge for Denver?
  
• Do you support a property tax increase to repair city assets?
  
• What would you do about gang crime in Denver?

Read the full article for details of Paul Lopez, JoAnn Phillips, Chris Nevitt, Shelly Watters, Sharon Bailey, and Carla Madison.

Cole Neighborhood blog urges you to vote for...

The ostensible goal of Cole Neighborhood blog's "Get Your Denver Election Ballots In!" is to increase participation:

It's shocking to me how little action some residents take in improving their neighborhood - whether it be participating in their neighborhood association meetings, volunteering, getting involved with neighborhood safety, or even more basically, VOTING.

The author ties this lack of involvement to the endemic difficulty of getting Denverites to participate in any form of local government:

One couple is never short on complaints about Cole--Whether it be the crime problem, the trash problem, the condition of their neighbor's home, etc.--Yet despite numerous efforts on my part to get them involved in the neighborhood, it has been somewhat like keeping a candle lit in a gusty windstorm.

Similarly, we've had neighborhood meetings as large as 45 people, but inevitably, the next one shrinks back down to the same 4 or 5 involved residents. How do these people expect things to change in Cole? It takes a few, committed individuals, some luck, and some momentum. But it starts by getting involved, rather than just complaining.

Yet to us, the more interesting part comes when the unnamed blogger BigSprinter offered endorsements. In addition to John Hickenlooper, the site endorses Dennis Gallagher and Stephanie O'Malley for somewhat facile reasons (e.g., "because the Denver Post endorses them, and for reasons that make sense to me.").

More substantive remarks are directed at the candidacies of Doug Linkhart and Carol Campbell:

Doug Linkhart seems dissatisfied in both Mr. Hickenlooper's and outgoing Councilmember Elbra Wedgeworth's track record in tackling the many issues North Denver metro neighborhoods face. Additionally, he seems sincerely interested in "filling in" and redeveloping the blighted "horseshoe" that still rings the redeveloped downtown to the north (and of which Cole belongs). Similarly, he shares my belief that the North Denver neighborhoods like Cole, Whittier, and Curtis Park at this point have enough homeless, drug and alcohol-related shelters--It's time for Highlands, and some of the other urban Denver 'hoods to do their part and host some of these important facilities.

Carol Campbell similarly seems ready to tackle head-on the crime and disorder issues that plaque urban Denver. I applaud her for consistently not skirting the issues, or candy-coating her opinions. For example, she's not afraid to speak out about the dim-witted Denver tradition of spending police dollars every year to facilitate Cinco de Mayo cruising. Is she being racist in speaking out about it? Come on, people. I don't care if they're Starbucks-drinking yuppies blasting Yanni in their 3-series BMW's, cruising is a big problem, that adversely affects residents and businesses along the Federal corridor. I lived over there, and know first-hand. So, because Carol Campbell is a straight-shooter that has the interests of responsible, law-abiding urban Denver residents in mind, she gets my vote.

Finally, the site endorses Carla Madison in Council District 8. The explanation was negative insofar as BigSprinter was troubled by the candidacies of Darrell Watson, Greg Rasheed, and Sharon Bailey, for some well-considered reasons.

Which brings us to Carla. Why do I like Carla? One, she isn't a good public speaker. I know, you're probably laughing now, but while I wish she'd practice her public speaking skills a bit more so more people would embrace her, I feel that what you see is what you get with her--And that makes all the difference too me.

She also supports Broken Windows, stimulating redevelopment while maintaining the historical and architectural character of the neighborhood, and she has consistently attended neighborhood and Cole-Whittier Against Crime meetings (not just the one where all the candidates were in attendance to give their sales pitch). Not to mention that she has a strong track-record at the neighborhood level as president and involved member of her City Park neighborhood association.

Whomever you pick, VOTE! And the bottom line is realistically that any of the above candidates will be an improvement over Elbra Wedgeworth, who checked out years ago.

Candidate responsiveness in Council District 8

Denver Direct has analyzed candidate responsiveness to Internet questioning in Council District 8.

The winner? Greg Rasheed.

The losers? Lynn Smith and Sharon Bailey.

What about Iraq?

What do City Council candidates think about the Iraq war?

Denver Direct videotapes their answers in a recent community forum.

To save you time, we will note that their responses were universally against the war.

Rocky endorses frontrunners

The Rocky Mountain News today issued official endorsements for the May 2007 municipal election. With due caution, they endorsed the frontrunner in every race... except for Council District 8, in which they offered kudos for both Sharon Bailey and Carla Madison:

Mayor: John Hickenlooper
Auditor: Dennis Gallagher
Clerk & Recorder: Stephanie O’Malley
District 3: Paul Lopez
District 4: Peggy Lehmann
District 5: Marcia Johnson
District 7: Chris Nevitt
District 8: Sharon Bailey or Carla Madison
District 9: Judy Montero
At-large: Doug Linkhart and Carol Boigon

Profile: Sharon Bailey (CD8)

Several readers have mentioned Sharon Bailey's husband, John. For the record, John Bailey ran for City Council in 1991, 1999, and in a special election in 2000. Scott Stocker & Gerry Valerio also wrote an article for the March 29, 2007 Rocky Mountain News regarding his work, entitled "Bailey's effort a cornerstone."

A quick Google search also revealed the article below, which references both Sharon and her husband upon the bestowal of a service award from Princeton University. Below is a short excerpt:

Sharon Bailey, who studied anthropology and teacher preparation at Princeton, volunteered at Community House as an undergraduate and became its director after graduation. Her future husband, John, a Princeton resident who attended Wagner College in New York, was mentoring local students through the Princeton Youth Center at the time.

The two collaborated to develop mentoring programs in academics and sports, focusing on youth in the predominantly African-American John Witherspoon community.

"We really appreciate the award," Sharon Bailey said. "I really felt a great grounding [in my service], and I'm still indebted to Princeton. The motto 'Princeton in the nation's service' has really stuck with me."

Diversity in the City Council District 8 campaign

Finally, an informative article in the Denver Post regarding the shape of our upcoming election, focusing on issues and illuminating heretofore unknown challengers.

Hopefully the dailies realize that this is a mail-in ballot, and they can't wait until the weekend before the election to provide fuller coverage.

Constituents in Council District 8 should definitely read this article by George Merritt. It's entitled "Diversity shaping election."

Yard sign allegations

The following email was sent this morning, alleging improprieties by the Sharon Bailey campaign. This information was sent by a "Seth Oake" but has not been confirmed (Google revealed not even a single listing for a "Seth Oake" and official Denver records reveal no homeowners with that last name):

After a call to Sharon's city office to let her know of her illegal campaign signs, I received a disturbing voicemail from her husband John Bailey. My message to Mrs. Bailey was that she knows she has illegal signs and she is responsible for making sure they are placed in legal areas. I let her know that I have been and will continue to remove the litter I find on public property. Her husband left me a voice mail a couple hours later that warned me to not let him catch me out there removing signs, that "aggressive campaigning is what I do" and it's "not my job to police him". He continues "if I catch you out there, there's going to be a problem". "Don't let me catch you out there."

I find this very disturbing that the campaign manager for one of our city employees is using threats when he is actually the one breaking the law.

"seth"

POLL: City Council District 8

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Official Disclaimer: Internet polls are NOT scientific and anyone who suggests otherwise is a fool.

Denver Politics endorses... Sharon Bailey in Council District 8

Council District 8 has been filled with brimstone and fire. At the beginning of the race, City Park West representative Carla Madison seemed to hold the lead. But the Darrell Watson campaign came roaring back, gaining powerful endorsements and raising lots of cash.

And then came Sharon Bailey. Although late to the campaign race, she brought a level of understanding and gravitas previously unappreciated. As a former elected Education Board representative and current employee in the Auditor's office, Sharon Bailey seems to understands what it is to govern.

If we were calculating folks, we'd look at the financial disclosures and decide between Darrell Watson and Carla Madison. But voting isn't a horserace, and City Council isn't a gamble. Considering the best person available for the job, we select Sharon Bailey as your next City Council representative.

Carla Madison, Darrell Watson, and Greg Rasheed may well climb to greater posts in Denver city governance... and we hope all do. But the most seasoned, intelligent, and worthy candidate for Council District 8 is Sharon Bailey.

Dear Denver supports Bailey in CD8 race

In the City Council District 8 race, Lisa Jones of Dear Denver is endorsing Sharon Bailey.

In the process, she also discusses some video clips of candidates Paul Lopez and Antoinette Alkire in Council District 3.

CD8: Candidates address issues of Latinos in Council District 8

Denver Direct caught an impassioned audience member asking candidates in Council District 8 what they would do regarding the growing Latino community in the Park Hill neighborhood.

Sharon Bailey, Carla Madison, Darrell Watson, and Greg Rasheed all responded. View the comments at "What's Up With That?"

CD8: Serious questions for Council District 8 candidates

The folks over at Denver Direct have spent a lot of time videotaping candidates forums and trying to stay abreast of the news.

Now they've got some questions they want answered. Hard questions for each and every City Council candidate in Council District 8. Plus some advice on presentation style and answer format for future forums.

Candidates are advised to review and respond directly to their "Unsolicited Advice and Unanswered Questions for the Candidates for Denver City Council District 8."

Sample questions below:

To Lynn Smith
1. What was the “technicality” that kept you off the ballet?
2. What was your total development activity in the last 10 years?
3. Isn’t your candidacy based on your reaction to difficulty you’ve had working with the City bureaucracy? Since Hickenlooper promised to fix that, and apparently didn’t, how can you have any effect on it?

To Greg Rasheed
1. What did you conclude when you were told “we know who you are”?
2. Please get real. You can’t meet 26,500 people face to face. What will you actually do to foster communication? Radio? Internet?
3. Do you have the knowledge of the workings of City government that well enable you to “hit the ground running” or will it be more like “on the job training”?

To Sharon Bailey
1. Your biography indicates that you were a consultant for 12 years after and before government jobs. Isn’t this the revolving door they talk about?
2. You mention being elected to the Denver School Board. Are the current sad state of Denver Schools (high-drop out, low scores, closed) your legacy?
3. Are you trying to prove something to your husband?

To Carla Madison
1. You’ve seemed apologetic for being “nervous”, “smarter than you seem”, and “white”. Why are you running for this “black seat”?
2. Some of us thought your husband Paul started the Festival of the Arts, now you say it was you. Why did CPWNA pay Paul to run the festival?
3. Didn’t the City waive its $50,000 fee from CPWNA, control, direct and implement the overlay and achieve “unanimous participation” only after allowing all dissidents to have their property removed from the overlay?

To Darrell Watson
1. Why aren’t you gay enough?
2. What do you actually do at your day job, and how are you connected to foundations and boards of directors of other organizations?
3. Serious accusations have flown your way, and people are now accusing you of exaggeration and taking credit for others work. Yet, you refuse to respond. What gives?

CD8: Cole Neighborhood Association meeting

Gerald Trumble continues to tape candidate forums, providing a valuable public service to folks who otherwise wouldn't get to see their prospective city council members.

Visit Denver Direct to view the opening remarks of all City Council District 8 candidates: Sharon Bailey, Carla Madison, Greg Rasheed, Lynn Smith, and Darrell Watson.

Profile: Videotape of the District 8 and At Large City Council candidates

An image is worth a thousand words, then Denver Direct has just offered a million or so helpful words for Denver voters this campaign season.

Gerald Trumbule visited a candidates forum sponsored by the San Rafael neighborhood association on Thursday evening (March 22nd), and videotaped all of the introductory statements by candidates.

Would you be interested to see the likes of District 8 candidates Sharon Bailey, Carla Madison, Greg Rasheed, Lynn Smith, and Darrell Watson? No matter where you live in Denver, the candidates for the At-Large Seat are important: Carol Boigon, Carol Campbell, and Doug Linkhart.

Please visit Denver City Council District 8 Candidates Speak at San Rafael 3-22-07.

The vast majority of Denver voters will never meet these candidates face-to-face. That's why issue-based, Internet resources are so valuable. Thanks, Jerry!

Profile: Sharon Bailey (CD8)

Several candidates for the District 8 City Council seat were profiled in the March 2007 edition of Life On Capitol Hill.

Sharon Bailey's campaign was described as follows:

Dr. Sharon Bailey is one of three candidates who have recently joined the race for the Council District 8 seat. She currently works as the Director of Accounting, Finance & Policy in the City Auditor's office. A former Denver Public Schools board member and a life-long resident of District 8, she has outlined eight priorities for the district:

Effective and efficient responses to constituents; neighborhood & school safety; services for children and families; more affordable housing; economic opportunity & workforce development; city-school partnerships; services & support for seniors; and advocating for more youth services and programs.

Dr, Bailey earned and a PhD in Public Administration from the University of Colorado. On the DPS board she served as liaison to the Colorado legislature, a member of the City-Schools Coordinating Council, and as national co-chair of the Council of Great City Schools Task Force on Urban Education.

She has worked as an administrator at Metropolitan State College and as a consultant to a number of agencies and organizations, including the Colorado Commission on Higher Education and as a member of the University of Colorado's Blue Ribbon Commission on Diversity.

In the auditor's office she chaired a collaborative effort to update the city's fiscal rules and has led the move to stabilize the use of technology in its business processes.

Bailey is the recipient of numerous awards and recognitions and received the 2005 "Legacy of Service" award from Princeton, her alma mater.