Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Who's showing up, and what does it mean?

The votes are coming in at a pretty good clip now, representing 61% of the general election total.

The scariest numbers come from District 3, which at 1,786 votes has barely over half of its anemic general election votes. In this case, lack of interest probably benefits the frontrunner, Paul Lopez.
Dist %ofGenElectVotes
CD3 50%
CD7 68%
CD8 61%
But the most interesting numbers are in Council District 8, where Carla Madison seems to be winning the "get out the vote" effort. Turnout in the whiter western neighborhoods is far heavier than in the minority-populated eastern neighborhoods, which could spell trouble for Sharon Bailey.
Neighborhood %ofGenElectVotes
North Capitol Hill 105%
Central Business 89%
City Park West 86%
Five Points 82%
City Park 66%
Cole 64%
Clayton 57%
Northeast Park Hill 55%
Whittier 54%
Skyland 54%
South Park Hill 47%
North Park Hill 42%
If the candidates maintained the percentages received in each neighborhood in the general election, Sharon Bailey would still win by a margin of 54% to 46%... but that probably isn't reassuring, especially if there is something more behind the Madison rush to the polls than just proactive voters.

2 comments:

Dave Barnes said...

I thought Paul Lopex was/is an "illegal alien" in District 3.

BigSprinter said...

Carla Wins!