The case against Lopez (video)

Lisa Jones of Dear Denver continues to provide insight into the Paul Lopez residency question in an article entitled "Court challenge may be in the works." In the article, Jones supported the decision to bring this matter to court, and added new insight into this now quite-public story:

All the evidence I've seen indicates that the Denver Election Commission staff erred in putting Lopez on the ballot. Earlier this week I spoke to one commissioner who had serious doubts about Lopez's eligibility. Her hands were tied, however, because the May 1 vote had already been certified. She had not been presented with facts about Lopez until recently. She hastened to point out that it is not the fault of the election commission if Lopez misled them about his eligibility.

She also includes a 5 minute clip from last night's meeting of the election commission, which provides further details about mounting evidence against Paul Lopez's credentials:
To round out the discussion, a critic of the Lopez campaign added an impassioned comment, which is excerpted below:

Honesty, credibility and trust is a huge part of the job. Based on court documents and the information supplied by the Denver Police Department, there is no way anyone should trust what Lopez says.

I hope the District Court challenge is made as certainly the requirements for elected office will be upheld by the Court. From what I’ve read – the case is solid and Lopez will be disqualified.

Joanne Phillips questions Paul Lopez's residency in Council District 3

George Merritt of the Denver Post reported this morning that Council District 3 candidate Joanne Phillips asked the Denver Election Commission yesterday to have her opponent, Paul Lopez, declared ineligible for the office. The article was entitled "Candidate cries foul to election panel."

The Lopez campaign did not comment on the matter. The article indicates that Lopez has previously denied the claims, but no further information or evidence was provided.

The most important news here is that the Election Commission apparently is not going to get involved, as "Assistant City Attorney Vicky Ortega said the only way to take action would be for someone to contest the election in district court." Apparently the Phillips campaign is considering just such a lawsuit.

Update: An unnamed author over at Colorado Pols takes a cynical view of the question here. It's not clear why the author considers court appearance documents and electoral change-of-address forms unimportant, but the weight of such evidence certainly raises an eyebrow to those who would dismiss the question out of hand.

For more detailed information on this issue, visit "Analysis of the Lopez residency question" and "Lopez residency under formal investigation."

POLL: Council District 3, sans Paul Lopez

What's your opinion of the potentially-revised Council District 3 race?

Opinion Polls & Market Research

Official Disclaimer: Internet polls are NOT scientific and anyone who suggests otherwise is a fool.

Neighborhood analysis, Council District 3

In Council District 3, second-place finisher JoAnne Phillips trails frontrunner Paul Lopez by 30 points. Her prospects seem even worse in light of the fact that she didn't challenge him in a single neighborhood.
Indeed, Phillips didn't close the gap to single digits in a single precinct. Even her best showings were pretty dismal: in Villa Park's 438th precinct and Mar Lee's 234th precinct, where she trailed Lopez by "only" 13% and 10%, respectively.

Of course, if Paul Lopez is declared ineligible for the Council District 3 seat, the race would become far more contested. Phillips would then have a lead over Roggeman in virtually every district except Barnum West, with a huge percentage of voters formally undecided.

Runoff election polls (May 15th update)

The current runoff election polls are pretty interesting.

In the Council District 3 poll, Paul Lopez leads JoAnne Phillips by 53% to 47%. However, the current margin of just 7% is a rather dramatic departure from Lopez's general election margin of 30%. The close online race is even more impressive given Phillips lack of online presence: she doesn't appear to have a website, has never responded to any posting online, and barely even registered 1% in our March poll of this district.

The real-world margin appears to be holding in our tally of Council District 7 preferences. Chris Nevitt leads by 20, with 60% against Shelly Watters' 40%. This is especially impressive as Nevitt was drubbed by Watters fans in the previous Denver Politics poll of District 7.

The most inverted results were found in the Council District 8 poll, in which Carla Madison leads frontrunner Sharon Bailey with 56% to 44%. This is likely due to the online presence of Madison troops. In the Denver Politics poll of District 8 leading up to the May general election, Madison had an even more commanding lead of 56% versus Bailey's 7%... yet we see how that turned out.

These polls will remain open until June 5th, so be sure to register your preference.

And as always, our disclaimer: "Internet polls are NOT scientific and anyone who suggests otherwise is a fool."

POLL: Council District 3 runoff

Opinion Polls & Market Research

Official Disclaimer: Internet polls are NOT scientific and anyone who suggests otherwise is a fool.

Ready, set, spend!

In the upcoming runoff election, the amount of money raised isn't as important as how much they have left.

The figures reflect each candidate's April 24th statement, so we should expect that the candidates spent some of this money before the general election ended. Still, the graph gives a good indicator both of the depth of their fundraising and the potential reserves for their upcoming runoff election.

For instance, although Nevitt raised significantly more funds than Watters, his financial reserves were just $2,400 more. Meanwhile, in District 3, Lopez retained an overwhelming advantage both in total fundraising and reserves.

Aide to winning seats on Denver City Council

Back in 2002, Peter Blake of the Rocky Mountain News offered a primary on "How To Win Seat On City Council." His answer? Become a council aide.

After all, it's worked in the past. Look at Jeanne Robb, Peggy Lehmann, Judy Montero, and Carol Boigon. They were all council aides before winning a seat in their own right. Yet so many more have tried and failed.

This year, aideship seems like a far less promising path to the Council. Just three aides were in the race, and none seem likely to join their former bosses at the dias.

• Julie Connor (aide to current Councilwoman Kathleen MacKenzie) went down to defeat in Council District 7.
  
• Shelly Watters (aide to current Councilwoman Carol Boigon) is in the runoff, but facing a daunting 20% deficit against frontrunner Chris Nevitt.
  
• JoAnn Phillips (aide to former Councilwoman Ramona Martinez) trails frontrunner Paul Lopez by 30%.

Nevertheless, I offer an excerpt from the April 24, 2002 article as found in the Rocky Mountain News for your historical reading pleasure:

There is no royal right of succession to seats on Denver City Council, but if you can't be born to the job, the next best way to land it is to work for the incumbent.

Just as many current council members served as aides to former ones, so do their aides hope to succeed them - or maybe another member - in the 2003 elections. To serve on council you have to live in the district you represent.

District 3 Councilwoman Ramona Martinez worked 10 years for the late Councilman Sam Sandos and now holds his job. When term limits force her out next year, among those hoping to succeed her is aide John Soto Jr. Her other aide, Bernadette Salazar, might also run...

Debbie Ortega succeeded to the council seat once held by Sal Carpio, and rumor has it that one of those who might run to succeed her is current aide Kim Kucera. A former Ortega aide, parks spokeswoman Judy Montero, might also run.

District 5 Councilwoman Polly Flobeck, who once worked for Paul Swalm, has two former aides who might run next year. Marcus Pachner, who just left her office, could run in the district; another former assistant, Jeanne Robb, might run in District 10 for Councilman Ed Thomas' seat.

District 11 Councilwoman Happy Haynes succeeded the man she had worked for, Bill Roberts. Her former aide, ex-school board member Bennie Milliner, might seek her job next year.

Sharon Elfenbein, assistant to Council President Joyce Foster in District 4, made an abortive run for the vacant District 6 seat that Charlie Brown won last year. But she said she's not likely to try again next year. A former Foster aide, Carol Boigon, is likely to run for an at-large seat next year.

A funny thing happened to Peggy Lehmann, who served in years gone by as an aide to former council members Mary DeGroot and Bill Himmelman. She came within just a few votes of beating Brown last year but the new redistricting map puts her in District 4 instead of 6. Brown is one of only three council members who can run again next year. Lehmann hasn't decided whether to run in 4.

Among those who never served as an aide is Councilwoman-at-large Cathy Reynolds. That's because there were no aides when she was first elected in 1975, and she takes credit for creating the system shortly thereafter. Each council member is entitled to 1.75 aides, a peculiar bureaucratic compromise...

It's obvious why aides have an edge when running for the top job. They've worked with local issues for years ``and can hit the ground running,'' said Reynolds. ``They know a heckuva lot more about how to do the job.''

And, if the council member likes the aide, he or she might get access to the contributor lists.

RMN runs down the election and previews the runoffs

And the big story of the day from the Rocky Mountain News? Well, of course "It's the Hickenlooper waltz" by Daniel Chacon.

After a brief rundown of the results, Chacon records "some memorable moments."

* A postal worker drove up to the Denver Election Commission office in his postal truck and dropped off his ballot in the all-mail contest.

"We thought it was kind of weird," worker Judy Hodges said.

• Voters complained that a pro-immigrant march prevented them from dropping off their ballots at commission headquarters.

"What incompetent idiot approved a parade down our street on Election Day?" asked Election Commissioner Susan Rogers. "Do you realize they're blaming us for it? Like we approve parades now, apparently. There's a posting on (a political blog) accusing us of disenfranchising voters by having a parade through here."

• People did double takes when they saw Gov. Bill Ritter standing in line at the Election Commission waiting to apply for an emergency ballot.

His ballot was mailed to his home in Platt Park. Ritter and his family moved into the Governor's Mansion this year, but he hadn't updated his address.

Ritter posed for pictures with election workers who were sporting festive boas and cowboy hats. Tuesday was "hat day" for commission workers, who wore exotic headgear while counting ballots.

Astoundingly, the News then did something uncharacteristic: provided more hard data about the issues now in front of the voters, profiling the 6 candidates still in the race for election in the June 5 runoff. Each candidate was briefly profiled and asked the following questions:

• Biggest challenge for Denver?
  
• Do you support a property tax increase to repair city assets?
  
• What would you do about gang crime in Denver?

Read the full article for details of Paul Lopez, JoAnn Phillips, Chris Nevitt, Shelly Watters, Sharon Bailey, and Carla Madison.

Unique city government needs in Council District 3

Stuart Steers of the Rocky Mountain News offered a lengthy look into the Council District 3 race that focused on the people and the issues as much as the candidates, providing a window into a world that most Denver voters don't even know exists.

A casual visitor to west Denver might wonder if he was still in the Mile High City.

Deserted homes lost to foreclosure seem to dot every other block. Graffiti is splashed over garage doors and on fences. Cars are parked on front lawns and a few houses even have boarded- up windows.

Former City Councilwoman Rosemary Rodriguez sees the area as "on the brink. It could stay the way it is, slide backwards, or really become vital."

What frustrates Rodriguez is that west Denver has real advantages that should make it appealing: easy access to downtown, affordable single-family homes, and some of the best Mexican and Asian food in the city.

Because the district is 72% Hispanic, it represents an awful lot of folks either unfamiliar with or excluded from the process of Denver city government. Rodriguez quoted a most shocking statistic, indicating that "Half the district is ineligible to vote because of citizenship status or age."

Each candidate for City Council in District 3 is then briefly profiled. A good paragraph is all that the crowded, 7-person field can be spared.

We invite you to read their comments directly in the article entitled "Denver's West Side Home of Frustration."

POLL: City Council District 3

Get Free Opinion Polls

Official Disclaimer: Internet polls are NOT scientific and anyone who suggests otherwise is a fool.

Candidates in Council District 3

George Merritt of the Denver Post has turned some focus to the issues, looking in on the City Council race in Council District 3.

Each candidate has two sentences to highlight their campaign platforms in this morning's article: "7 run to revitalize district: West Denver hopefuls target graffiti, foreclosures."