Ready, set, spend!

In the upcoming runoff election, the amount of money raised isn't as important as how much they have left.

The figures reflect each candidate's April 24th statement, so we should expect that the candidates spent some of this money before the general election ended. Still, the graph gives a good indicator both of the depth of their fundraising and the potential reserves for their upcoming runoff election.

For instance, although Nevitt raised significantly more funds than Watters, his financial reserves were just $2,400 more. Meanwhile, in District 3, Lopez retained an overwhelming advantage both in total fundraising and reserves.

Who got the money in 2007?

A few observations on the campaign finances in the 2007 Denver municipal elections.

First, our expectation that people give money to ensure a victory by their candidate just doesn't add up. Look at the below fundraising numbers put up by Mayor John Hickenlooper. Why are people giving in droves to a man who is cruising to victory? Why do his finances skyrocket at the end, with no serious race in sight? Because they want power and access, and for that, nothing's better than a sure winner for the top post in city government.

Then there's the matter of incumbents. In addition to their war chests, they can raise money quickly. Look at the sharply increasing figures for Councilwoman Carol Boigon, who raised nearly $100,000 in just four months:

Then there are the open seats. Here the candidates in Council District 7 (Nevitt, Watters, and Connor) clearly outpaced the field.

Finally, we look at the challengers. How hard is to raise money against an incumbent? Only one breached the $10k barrier.

If donors were largely ideological, new challengers willing to instantiate ideas would gain the most money. But what donors really want is access. So you give money where it's sure to do some good, to those people who are sure to get re-elected. See the below averages for City Council fundraising by incumbents, open seat candidates, and challengers.

Oh yes, and then you bemoan what a terribly boring election we're having. Why haven't we heard any new ideas?

Be a dear and pass another hors d'ourve, won't you?

O'Malley's daddy

Does anyone find it strange that virtually all of the campaign financing in support of an elected Clerk & Recorder position was provided by "Wellington Webb International"?

Having Webb's daughter (Stephanie O'Malley) appointed to the position by Mayor Hickenlooper seems rather... convenient, doesn't it?

Does it make it better that Dad waited two months to fund the campaign, or more suspicious?

Questions should be directed to Hick, O'Malley, Webb, and the group's treasurer, Dennis Gallagher.

Political force in the Home Builders Association of Metro Denver

I have been openly (sometime unreservedly) critical of the Denver dailies. But occasionally critical and hard-working reporters do slip through the cracks. One such reporter is Stuart Steers of the Rocky Mountain News.

It takes more than a little gusto to rip through the campaign statements over every political candidate for municipal elections in Denver. But if you want to understand the power of such powerful organizations as the Home Builders Association of Metro Denver, that's what it takes.

Especially when one of the most important tasks of the next Denver City Council is going to be implementing the recommended changes of the Zoning Code Taskforce.

Review Steers' article entitled "Developers build campaign coffers: Elected officials bound to have say in major projects." Specific mention is provided to council candidates Marcia Johnson, Carol Boigon, Jeanne Faatz, Peggy Lehmann, Doug Linkhart, Shelly Watters, Carla Madison, and Charlie Brown.

CD7: In-depth analysis of campaign finances - and by extension, the race itself

Money tells a lot about a candidate. In that spirit, we have analyzed the contributions in the City Council District 7 race to tell a more complete story of this highly-competitive race.

Currently, Nevitt and Watters are battling for supremacy in terms of total dollars raised:

Chris Nevitt $65,209
Shelly Watters $52,723
Julie Connor $21,800

But of course, such raw numbers tell only a small part of the story. Trends over time and changes within the donor base are also crucial. For instance, even at the beginning of the race, there was a great deal of money ($41,775 to be exact). Since then, the scale of monthly contributions has risen somewhat unevenly: Shelly Watters' contributions have diminished while Nevitt has surged and Julie Connor is increasing the pace.

Chris Nevitt has the lead in the total number of contributions, with an especially big surge in March.

But the most significant difference between the candidates is their reliance on big-ticket donors. Whereas both Julie Connor and Chris Nevitt have a roughly even split among their donor base, more than 80% of the contributors to Shelly Watters campaign have donated $250 or more.

Who are the primary donors financing this race? A small number of stalwarts are the real power behind each candidacy, giving maximum $1000 contributions. Below is a list of "maxed out" donors for each candidate:

Shelly Watters: David Kenney, Brad Buchanan, Doug McKinnon, Elaine Berman, Eric Miller, Evan Makovsky, Foster Graham Milstein & Calisher, Greg Stevinson, Harold Grueskin, Harvey Deutsch, Howard Greinetz, Jay Kamlet, Jennifer Watters, Joyce Foster, Marcia Robinson, Marilyn Schwartz, Mark Goldberg, Medical Property Holdings, Norman Brownstein, Paradise Properties, Sage Hospitality, Sheldon Steinhauser, and Sherri Way

Chris Nevitt: Audrey Nevitt, Robert Nevitt, Carpenters Union 55, Chris Mygatt, Colorado Machinists, CSCEW, Firefighters Local 858, Int'l Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, Int'l Union of Painters, James Mauro Jr, Jessica Brady, Joanie Condoret, Jon Condoret, Journeyman Plumbers, Kristen Stoever, Local 720 PAC, NECA, Refrigeration & AC Assoc, Service Employees Local 105, Sheetmetal Workers, Teamsters Municipal PAC, and Transit Union Workers #1001

Julie Connor: Ajay Kapoor, Denver Police, Michael Stratton, Tom Connor, United Food & Commercial Workers

These folks can no longer give. But will they support another candidate? It appears unlikely. Although we often assume that donors give money to multiple candidates ("playing the odds," as it were), that phenomenon has been remarkably limited in this campaign. Of the 799 contributors, only 14 have (so far) given money to more than one candidate.

David Cole ($200 to both Julie & Shelly, $50 to Chris)
Sherri Way ($1000 to Shelly, $250 to Chris)
Jim Jones ($500 to Shelly, $250 to Chris)
Rich Delanoy ($350 to Shelly, $250 to Julie)
Sharon Withers ($250 to Shelly, $50 to Chris)
Charlotte Winzenburg ($200 to Chris, $50 to Julie)
Gertie Grant ($200 to Chris, $25 to Julie)
Joe Cannata ($100 to both Chris & Shelly)
Lynn Pressnall ($100 to Chris, $75 to Julie)
Jeff Leventhal ($100 to Chris, $25 to Shelly)
Brenda McHenry ($50 to Julie, $25 to Shelly)
Sheila Robinson ($50 to Chris, $40 to Shelly)
Tom Parsons ($50 to both Chris & Julie)
Charlie Busch ($50 to both Julie & Shelly)

In the end, we are left with several strong impressions:

• Chris Nevitt has a strong lead in campaign financing, not only because he has the overall margin but because he has energized a wide base of donors. He also has the most institutional support through a variety of union connections.
  
• Shelly Watters' financial backing is dominated by wealthy, business-oriented contributors in the legal and land-development communities. Her initial lead is now lost, and neither the percentage of "maxed out" donors nor the small number of ordinary contributors bodes well.
  
• Julie Connor has the highest percentage of small dollar donations and the smallest percentage of "maxed out" donors. Her finance options are therefore the most promising, with an opportunity to exploit her attractiveness to ordinary voters and/or squeeze higher dollar values from her base. But this financial gap needs to be closed for uninvolved or undecided voters to hear her message.

CD2: Faatz campaign finance figures were in error

Our recent posting on current financial status of Denver's municipal candidates has been revised with updated information for one of the candidates.

We originally indicated that Councilwoman Jeanne Faatz had $77,008. However, the Faatz campaign explained that the correct number is much less.

The issue arose from the Faatz financial disclosure for 2006 including roughly $55,000 which the campaign determined should not have been added. That figure was reportedly added to her disclosure form in error, as it represented 2003 financial contributions unrelated to the current race.

Her January 2007 disclosure and the amended January 2007 disclosure revised the figures. Subsequent disclosures have followed the same tack, indicating that her campaign has now raised a total of $20,680 instead of $77,008.

We at Denver Politics are not campaign finance experts. Far from it. However, it seems to us that the Faatz campaign should submit a revised form for 2006, because that report remains in error... and can't be corrected simply by revising a subsequent form. But again, we're not experts, and so have simply updated our figures above to match the campaign's internal figures - with apologies to all for the confusion.

Further clarifications and ideas appreciated.

CD08: Darrell Watson press release mangles the facts

The Darrell Watson campaign continues its miscues.

Yesterday Wanda James sent out a press release entitled "Darrell Watson The Strongest Candidate District 8." The evidence for this statement was found in campaign finances, with Watson raising over $19,000 in March, more money than any of his competitors had raised during the entire race.

Trouble is, that's factually incorrect.

1) The Watson campaign did not raise "over $19,000" during March. The exact figure was $18,347.55. Why they would fudge the numbers like that is beyond me.

2) Numbers for the other candidates were also wrong. They claim "the closest competitor has raised less than $17,000 for the entire race." In fact, Carla Madison has raised $26,385.99, according to the latest disclosure forms.

3) Not only did Watson fail to overwhelm his competition by the generosity of his followers, he didn't even win the monthly battle. Watson's $18,347.55 for the month of March came in behind Carla Madison's $18,873.99.

4) Finally, instead of showing that "Watson shows huge lead in fundraising" (as claimed in the article's subtitle), the March numbers showed only a slim financial lead: $31,554.91 vs $26,385.99.

Perhaps the Watson folks were being disingenuous, trying to compare Watson's April numbers with the other candidate's numbers only up to March. Or perhaps they were discounting a gift from Carla Madison to her own campaign - even though Watson gave money to his own campaign as well. All such gifts from candidates are listed under the same "Form A, Report of Contributions" as used for external contributions.

Whatever the case, the Watson campaign clearly had access to the correct information. Their financial disclosure was stamped 2 hours after Carla Madison's disclosure and the press release came out 20 hours later (just 3 hours before this posting). Yet they chose to be "Clintonian" in their parsing... or as the British would say, "too clever by half."

The full numbers are available online, and may be compared with full text of the Watson press release below.

For Further Information Contact:
Wanda James
(303) 388-8797
info@electwatson.com

DARRELL WATSON THE STRONGEST CANDIDATE DISTRICT 8
Watson shows huge lead in fundraising and in endorsements

Denver, CO – Thursday, April 5, 2007 – Denver County Clerk and Recorder reported today that District 8 candidate Darrell Watson has raised over $33,000 during course of his campaign. Over $19,000 was raised in this reporting period alone! His closest competitor has raised less than $17,000 for the entire race

The Watson campaign is also showing a tremendous amount of support in key endorsements including labor, business and elected officials. Former Chair of the Colorado Democratic Party, Chris Gates has recently endorsed Watson.

“The support we have received has been incredible,” stated Watson. “We are gathering widespread support from all over the district and all over the city.”

About Darrell Watson

Darrell is a 13-year resident of City Council District 8 and a life-long Democrat. As President of the Whittier Neighborhood Association, Darrell fought to protect the character and history of his neighborhood, by insisting on enforcement of zoning ordinances, supervising the planting of over 350 trees, as well as coordinating the revitalization of all five neighborhood parks.

Darrell has served as the chair of the Biased Policing Task Force and forged a partnership between the police, community, and elected officials to create a new training program for Denver police officers, as well as to increase community policing across Denver. He has also served as Chair of the Legislative Committee of the Colorado Democratic Party, on the Board of Trustees for the Denver Foundation, and on the Land Use Transportation Advisory Committee.

Supporting an increased economic opportunity within Council District 8, Watson collaborated with the community, developers, and city leaders to build the first residential mixed use property in Whittier along the 30th and Downing Light Rail. This development created affordable housing, much-needed retail space, and the home of the Whittier Neighborhood Community Center.

About the 8th District

City Council District 8 sits north of Colfax Road, and south of 40th Avenue. It extends from Speer to Holly Street and many neighborhoods including Five Points, City Park, Cole, Whittier, Clayton, Skyland, North Capitol Hill and Northeast Park Hill. Elbra Wedgeworth is our current representative, but is unable to run again due to term limits.

Campaign contributions

The candidates have filed their March 2007 campaign finance reports, and the results are unsurprising.

Mayor John Hickenlooper has the most money by far, with nearly $600,000 in campaign contributions. Other candidates with deep pockets include Councilman Charlie Brown, Auditor Dennis Gallagher, Councilman Michael Hancock, Councilman Judy Montero, and Councilman Carol Boigon - all with more than $100,000 in contributions so far.

Unsurprisingly, all but one of the above (Boigon) lack any serious competition.

Also unsurprisingly, the best way to get elected is to already be elected. Incumbent City Council members have raised an average of $88,676. Their direct challengers have raised an average of $2,353.

Challengers thus not only face the battle of name recognition, but also must overcome the 40-to-1 disadvantage in contributions necessary to get their names known. (Nor can it be said that the Denver media helps in this regard. No wonder Denver municipal elections have a slightly higher rate of re-election than in the old Soviet Duma.)

As for the open City Council seats, Council District 7 is the most competitive with $146,681 raised by current and expired candidacies. By contrast, Council District 8 has managed only $67,395 and Council District 3 will be the cheapest seat in the house at a combined total of just $28,634.

Further analysis will be forthcoming, but in the meantime enjoy the numbers below and visit the Denver City Clerk's campaign finance site online for more detailed information.

DENVER MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS
CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS
AS OF 03/31/07

Council District 1
Rick Garcia $75,830.00
Unopposed

Council District 2
Jeanne Ryan Faatz $20,680.00
Unopposed

Council District 3
Paul E Lopez $15,595.00
Ben Romero $7,994.57
Mark Gerard Roggeman $2,100.00
JoAnn Phillips $2,050.00
Kathy E Sandoval $895.00
Niccolo Casewit $0
Antoinette Alire $0

Council District 4
Peggy Lehmann $47,510.00
William Arthur Rutherford III $6,088.29
Ike Kelley Jr $0

Council District 5
Marcia Johnson $63,781.83
Mitchell Poindexter $3,550.00
Ronald J Ours Jr $325.00

Council District 6
Charlie Brown $164,546.00
Unopposed

Council District 7
Chris Nevitt $65,208.63
Rochelle Watters $52,723.00
Julie Ann Connor $21,800.00
Dennis Smith $0

Council District 8
Darrell B Watson $31,554.91
Carla Ann Madison $26,385.99
Sharon Bailey $9,365.00
Greg Rasheed $0

Council District 9
Judy H Montero $128,565.00
Waldo Benevidez $0

Council District 10
Jeanne Robb $44,567.00
Unopposed

Council District 11
Michael Hancock $130,700.00

Council At Large
Carol Ann Spickler Boigon $125,120.78
Doug Linkhart $85,460.00
Carol E Campbell $8,858.38

Clerk & Recorder
Stephanie O'Malley $20,020.00
Jacob Werther $450.00

Auditor
Dennis Gallagher $136,854.57
Bill Wells $0

Mayor
John Hickenlooper $592,860.06
Danny Lopez $0

UPDATE (04/09): This posting originally indicated that Councilwoman Jeanne Faatz had $77,008, but that number is incorrect. Councilwoman Faatz explained that her financial disclosure for 2006 unwittingly included more than $56,000 in financial contributions for the 2003 race. Her subsequent January 2007 disclosure and the amended January 2007 disclosure both indicated a revised figure of $0 for that time period. Her February and March disclosures followed the same form, indicating that her campaign has raised a total of $20,680 instead of $77,008. It seems to Denver Politics that the Faatz campaign would still need to submit a revised form for 2006, because that report remains in error... and a rather significant error at that. However, we're not experts in campaign finance, and so have updated our figures above to match the campaign's internal figures.

Where's the money?

Things at Dear Denver are heating up, as they investigate the campaign contributions being made (especially in the Council District 7 race) and the source of the anonymous donations arranged by Mayor Hickenlooper's office (the Piton Foundation and Denver Police Foundation are discussed).

More on campaign finance details will be reported here after the March numbers are released. Stay tuned!

An argument for giving

A recent poll at Denver Politics revealed the paucity of campaign contributions by ordinary citizens. When asked how much money they would ordinarily contribute to their favorite City Council candidate:

• 25% said $0
  
• 25% said $1-49
  
• 32% said $50-99

The results were a bit surprising, especially given the huge sums of money raised by presidential candidates. In 2004, George Bush and John Kerry raised an average of more than $230 million. In contrast, candidates for Denver City Council need only $50,000 to be viable for most competitive seats.

Contributions to Denver City Council candidates thus provide a much more dramatic effect on campaigns. A $500 gift could represent a full 1% of the candidate's funding.

Even a $100 contribution would be extraordinary. In order to have the same effect on a presidential election, you would have to contribute nearly a half-million dollars ($460,000)!

So unless you've got an awful lot of cash lying around, I'd suggest donating to a few Denver City Council candidates instead of sending it off to Barack, Rudy, Hillary, or Newt. You'll have a much greater effect on the election, and a direct effect on local questions which matter to you.

POLL: Your political contributions

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Official Disclaimer: Internet polls are NOT scientific and anyone who suggests otherwise is a fool.

CD8: Darrel Watson winning the money race

ColoradoLib's 300 Spartans Gym recently wrote about Council District 8 candidate Darrell Watson, noting that his campaign had sent out a press release claiming a significant lead in the money race.

Denver County Clerk and Reporter reported yesterday that District 8 candidate Darrell Watson raised $13,201.36 during course of his campaign. He has out-raised his closest opponent by over $5,500.

"Not only are we doing a great job on fundraising, we are proud to report that we did it with 168 donors, of whom two-thirds gave $50 or less," stated Watson. "This shows that we have a broad base of support from throughout Council District 8."

Visit ColoradoLib in order to review the entire article online.

Anything happening?

ColoradoLib's MountainMan was recently wondering "Anything Happening In City Council Races?"

The ensuing discussion was interesting, both in terms of the jockeying between campaign staff members, financial details of the CD7 race, and various endorsements. Among the observations:

• Mr Toodles likes Paul Lopez in CD3.


• Money is flowing in the CD7 race, with $43k to Shelly Watters, $38k to Chris Nevitt, and $18k to Julie Connor.


• According to The Denominator, Julie Connor's campaign claims the support of 6 of the 10 presidents of RNOs (registered neighborhood organizations), so she certainly has a lot of the activists on her side.

Candidates Fail To Report Donor Details

RMN political reporter Daniel Chacón today exposed widespread violations of the city's campaign finance laws.

According to the law, candidates must report both the occupation and employer of all donors who give more than $200.

However, they are failing to do so. Mayor Hickenlooper and Auditor Gallagher are among the violators, while Julie Connor's campaign seems to have been cleared. Other candidates were not mentioned in this story.

The only reason violators haven't been caught is that the Clerk & Recorder's office isn't doing their job and auditing any of these statements. Stephanie O'Malley is looking into the matter.

The full story can be found online: "Campaign Finance Laws Being Violated."

Campaigns struggle for publicity in 2007

Denver Post reporter George Merritt today highlighted the very issue that initiated this blog. The article was entitled "Slew of council candidates under the radar."

No fewer than 18 candidates are vying for three open seats on the Denver City Council this spring, but the contests have largely gone under the radar without a high-profile race for mayor to draw attention to the campaign season.

...No one currently in Denver government knows the difficulties of running for office in a low-profile election year as well as outgoing Councilwoman Kathleen MacKenzie. She won the only open seat on the council in 1999 - a year in which the incumbent mayor, Wellington Webb, won handily.

"I think that was one of the worst turnouts ever," MacKenzie said. "I was nervous as the day went by and the turnout was so low."

Similarly, this year's race for mayor is not likely to drive people to the polls. Mayor John Hickenlooper has a war chest closing on $600,000, and the only opponent to turn in petitions, Public Works employee Danny Lopez, does not have a campaign budget.

Hickenlooper officially launched his re-election bid Tuesday, filing more than four times the necessary 300 signatures.

Adding to the difficulty of stirring public interest, this year's election will be by mail ballot - effectively shortening the campaign for candidates because ballots go out about a month before the May 1 election day.

Regardless of the lack of buzz surrounding the election, Mac Kenzie and others said council seats are still won by pounding the pavement.

"The papers tend to cover the mayor ... but there's still not much coverage of the council race," MacKenzie said. "Those races are won by a real, door-to-door grassroots effort."

...Challengers facing the 10 council incumbents seeking re-election face the biggest obstacle. Since the 1970s, just three incumbents have been knocked out of a council seat.

"There is approximately a 95 percent re-election rate among incumbents" on the City Council, said John Bennett, a former council administrator who analyzed the council elections. "The chances of an incumbent losing is almost nil."

The mayor's war chest

Watch out - the mayor's got a war chest. Daniel Chacon of the Rocky Mountain News reported that Hickenlooper now has more than half a million dollars in cash. With that and his high approval ratings, it's no wonder only one candidate (homeless advocate Drew Hanson) is willing to take him on.

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper collected more than $112,000 for his re-election campaign in February, his campaign statements show.

The mayor now has nearly $588,000 total on hand for his re-election campaign.

"We’re receiving all the way from $2 contributions to $3,000 contributions," Lynea Hansen, Hickenlooper's campaign manager, said today.

"The support crosses all boundaries of the community, coming from everywhere," she said. "It just shows that John Hickenlooper has a wide base of support and continues to enjoy that wide base of support."