Denver Politics endorses... Chris Nevitt in Council District 7

We judge City Council candidates by 4 simple qualifications:

• Intelligence applied to real-world problems
  
• Commitment to public service
  
• Identification with ordinary citizens
  
• Experience in city government

Based on these criteria, we enthusiastically endorse Chris Nevitt for Council District 7.

Chris Nevitt has a Ph.D. in economics, and has focused his career on the application of that knowledge to the problems of working men and women.

His support runs wide and deep in this district. The Nevitt coalition includes virtually every labor organization, the city's entire safety apparatus (police officers, firefighters, and the District Attorney), and the entire Denver delegation to the Colorado House and Senate. That says something about him. He has had the most small donors as well, engaging neighborhood leaders and small business owners throughout the district.

Shelly Watters is a fine person who has already served the public well, working as an aide to two city councilwomen. But access doesn't imply leadership, and her reliance on big business donors raises questions of perspective. In addition, her timid answers in public forums lead us to question her ability to be a powerful advocate for District 7.

Nevitt's primary criticisms regard his close labor ties and alleged political aspirations, yet even these mild concerns seem wrongheaded. While one could certainly imagine a bullheaded ideologue marring City Council with far-reaching ambitions, Chris Nevitt is not that man. He is a pragmatic-yet-principled populist.

That's the kind of leadership we look forward to in City Council in District 7, which is why we urge support for Chris Nevitt: the intelligent, committed, and experienced choice for Council District 7.

Hickenlooper gives Nevitt the business

Yesterday's Denver Post issued a missive from George Merritt entitled "Mayor: Candidate flier misleading."

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper delved into the City Council races for the first time today, calling out District 7 candidate Chris Nevitt for "misleading voters."

Nevitt's campaign used a picture of Hickenlooper on its latest flier.

The Nevitt campaign responded that the flier was intended to be light. I guess the Dr Seuss-themed cover and the fanciful rhymes weren't a strong enough tip-off for that, to wit:

Denver parents and teachers think his plans are just super,
and hopefully so does Mayor John Hickenlooper.

Of course, the Watters campaign was elated, thanking the mayor for "setting the record straight." But the bigger story here is the culmination of a threat made by the mayor earlier this month. On May 2nd, the day after the general municipal election, Colorado Pols featured an article entitled "Hick May Pick Sides in One City Council Race." It read, in part:

Hickenlooper doesn't normally make public endorsements of candidates for city office, but there was a lot of talk last night that he would soon endorse Shelly Watters over Chris Nevitt in City Council District 7 because he is uncomfortable with Nevitt's close ties to organized labor.

Anyone who recognizes Hickenlooper's business origin can see that a candidate who would support the larger working community would be an ideological opposite. Still, some insightful comments ensued over at Colorado Pols, none more perspicacious than the first:

Nevitt's base will stay with him, and he only needs to pick another 3.1% to win in the runoff. Shelly has a much higher hill to climb. Nevitt wins this and Hick would be foolish to get involved publically (though everyone knows he was involved behind the scenes).

Hickenlooper involved behind the scenes? You mean Hickenlooper has been actively campaigning against a pro-labor candidate this whole time, perhaps through The Kenney Group, who managed both Shelly Watters' campaign and Hickenlooper's re-election bid with the same large donations from big businesses and land speculators? Say it ain't so.

This background information provides insight into Chris Nevitt's incredulous response to the pseudo-controversy, as quoted in yesterday's Denver Post article:

"A couple people called and said, 'You are implying that John Hickenlooper endorsed you,'" [Nevitt] said.

"I actually called them back and said, 'Nothing could be further from the truth.'"

You can say that again.

Dear Shelly endorsement

Lisa Jones of Dear Denver has endorsed Shelly Watters in the District 7 runoff in an article entitled "Watters, please, in District 7." Her reasoning is mainly directed against the current frontrunner in the race:

I suppose I should start getting used to the idea of Chris Nevitt on Denver City Council. I'm among the few who aren't favorably impressed by him. Not that I'm jumping up and down about Shelly Watters, mind you. But I do think Watters is the better choice.

She prefers Watters for two reasons: first, because Watters has been a council aide for Carol Boigon (whom Jones likes), and second, because she is concerned that Nevitt may be too ideological, to wit:

we all love Jimmy Stewart-style politicians who stick to their principles. Sometimes, however, noble motives conflict with practicality and political reality. "Being right" doesn't always translate into "getting it done."

Connor declines to endorse in CD7

In Council District 7, Julie Connor has declined to endorse either of the remaining candidates. While the material effect of this decision is to put her supporters "up for grabs," Shelly Watters' candidacy suffers a greater harm. That's because Watters needed the support of Connor's entire base to stay within shouting distance of Chris Nevitt, yet now will have to make up the difference on her own.

Below is an excerpt from Connor's letter to supporters.

Voters groused that it was a field packed so full of smart choices that they couldn’t make up their minds, and indeed we are all experienced and deeply committed to community service. The field has narrowed, but the expertise has not.

For the runoff, rather than direct voters towards one candidate or the other, I am suggesting people think about what aspects are most important for a councilperson to get the job done (responsiveness, experience, philosophy, vision, fight, commitment, ambition, personality, connections, endorsements, confidence, whatever), and then have a conversation with each one to determine which one possesses those requirements/needs/qualifications...

Don’t be reluctant to talk to the candidates: After a five-minute talk with each of them one-on-one, you will get a clear picture of who is going to serve you better. And there aren’t many political candidates who you can actually call and talk to; a City Council race is one of the few with accessible candidates. Plus, regardless of who gets elected, it will be remembered that you were engaged enough to call and sound them out – that’s a constituent who it would be wise to pay attention to down the line.

Most importantly, whoever you decide to vote for, get that ballot back to the Election Commission by Tuesday, June 5 before 7:00 p.m.

Runoff election polls (May 15th update)

The current runoff election polls are pretty interesting.

In the Council District 3 poll, Paul Lopez leads JoAnne Phillips by 53% to 47%. However, the current margin of just 7% is a rather dramatic departure from Lopez's general election margin of 30%. The close online race is even more impressive given Phillips lack of online presence: she doesn't appear to have a website, has never responded to any posting online, and barely even registered 1% in our March poll of this district.

The real-world margin appears to be holding in our tally of Council District 7 preferences. Chris Nevitt leads by 20, with 60% against Shelly Watters' 40%. This is especially impressive as Nevitt was drubbed by Watters fans in the previous Denver Politics poll of District 7.

The most inverted results were found in the Council District 8 poll, in which Carla Madison leads frontrunner Sharon Bailey with 56% to 44%. This is likely due to the online presence of Madison troops. In the Denver Politics poll of District 8 leading up to the May general election, Madison had an even more commanding lead of 56% versus Bailey's 7%... yet we see how that turned out.

These polls will remain open until June 5th, so be sure to register your preference.

And as always, our disclaimer: "Internet polls are NOT scientific and anyone who suggests otherwise is a fool."

Neighborhood analysis, Council District 7

In Council District 7, Shelly Watters doesn't have a ghost of a chance of winning. As the graph below shows, she only challenged Nevitt's lead in three neighborhoods: Overland, Valverde, and Rosedale. Throughout the rest of the district, including her own Platt Park, she trails by 14% or more.

West Wash Park, Athmar Park, and College View weren't even competitive, with Chris dominating by a margin of more than 30%.

POLL: Council District 7 runoff

Opinion Polls & Market Research

Official Disclaimer: Internet polls are NOT scientific and anyone who suggests otherwise is a fool.

Ready, set, spend!

In the upcoming runoff election, the amount of money raised isn't as important as how much they have left.

The figures reflect each candidate's April 24th statement, so we should expect that the candidates spent some of this money before the general election ended. Still, the graph gives a good indicator both of the depth of their fundraising and the potential reserves for their upcoming runoff election.

For instance, although Nevitt raised significantly more funds than Watters, his financial reserves were just $2,400 more. Meanwhile, in District 3, Lopez retained an overwhelming advantage both in total fundraising and reserves.

RMN runs down the election and previews the runoffs

And the big story of the day from the Rocky Mountain News? Well, of course "It's the Hickenlooper waltz" by Daniel Chacon.

After a brief rundown of the results, Chacon records "some memorable moments."

* A postal worker drove up to the Denver Election Commission office in his postal truck and dropped off his ballot in the all-mail contest.

"We thought it was kind of weird," worker Judy Hodges said.

• Voters complained that a pro-immigrant march prevented them from dropping off their ballots at commission headquarters.

"What incompetent idiot approved a parade down our street on Election Day?" asked Election Commissioner Susan Rogers. "Do you realize they're blaming us for it? Like we approve parades now, apparently. There's a posting on (a political blog) accusing us of disenfranchising voters by having a parade through here."

• People did double takes when they saw Gov. Bill Ritter standing in line at the Election Commission waiting to apply for an emergency ballot.

His ballot was mailed to his home in Platt Park. Ritter and his family moved into the Governor's Mansion this year, but he hadn't updated his address.

Ritter posed for pictures with election workers who were sporting festive boas and cowboy hats. Tuesday was "hat day" for commission workers, who wore exotic headgear while counting ballots.

Astoundingly, the News then did something uncharacteristic: provided more hard data about the issues now in front of the voters, profiling the 6 candidates still in the race for election in the June 5 runoff. Each candidate was briefly profiled and asked the following questions:

• Biggest challenge for Denver?
  
• Do you support a property tax increase to repair city assets?
  
• What would you do about gang crime in Denver?

Read the full article for details of Paul Lopez, JoAnn Phillips, Chris Nevitt, Shelly Watters, Sharon Bailey, and Carla Madison.

POLL: City Council District 7

Opinion Polls & Market Research

Official Disclaimer: Internet polls are NOT scientific and anyone who suggests otherwise is a fool.

Video Interview: Chris Nevitt (CD7)

Colorado Confidential's Kerri Rebrush interviewed Chris Nevitt, City Council candidate for Council District 7.

Chris indicates the top issues in District 7 as united around the question of schools, but that the east side of Broadway is more interested in controlling development and the west sides of Broadway is more concerned with crime.

As for his support, Chris mentions politicians, neighbors, and businesses, with a brief mention of his union friends.

Regarding redevelopment, Nevitt supports voluntary downzoning of neighborhood homes to preserve single-family neighborhood quality.

Finally, regarding his unique qualities for City Council, he mentions his ability to create results in a short period of time, referencing negotiations within the Gates redevelopment project.

Denver Politics endorses... Julie Connor in District 7

What do you look for in a City Council candidate? We think four things are paramount:

• Intelligence applied to real-world problems
  
• Commitment to public service
  
• Identification with ordinary citizens
  
• Experience in city government

City Council District 7 is fortunate to have several committed candidates. But in terms of the listed characteristics, one stands above the rest: Julie Connor.

Connor knows the ins and outs of city government, having worked in constituent services for outstanding representative Kathleen MacKenzie. She knows each and every major (and minor) question before our district, and she has developed the personal relationships necessary to achieve desired outcomes.

Even more importantly, she identifies with ordinary citizens, helping the advantaged and disadvantaged alike to participate in city government. As a historian, I was impressed by Connor's dedication in finding common ground in the contentious DeBoer Historic District, reconciling divergent interests so that a compromise could be reached.

And she is smart. Watch the forums, read the interviews, and talk with her. She is sharp, alert, and alive with the issues. That's the sort of person I want on City Council.

Chris Nevitt is also a great candidate, with both the "common man" viewpoint and the intelligence to carry through the work, but he has been on the fringes of public policymaking. Meanwhile, Shelly Watters has become a favored candidate, raising lots of money from development interests. But the trust of such well-heeled insiders and politicos leads to questions of access, fairness, and perspective. I want someone who will hear the rest of us: new participants and old hands, small donors and no donors, and previously-excluded as well as seasoned veterans.

Connor has been committed to public service from the Peace Corps to the present day, in wide-ranging issues facing the district in all of its complexity. For all these reasons, we enthusiastically endorse Julie Connor as our next City Councilwoman from Council District 7.

Divided Council District 7

Daniel Chacon of the Rocky Mountain News has written about the chasm between communities in City Council's District 7.

The article was entitled: "In divided District 7, there are two sides to everything: East, west zones split by wealth, development."

In some ways, [Councilwoman] MacKenzie said, District 7 is "like two different districts."

"On the east side of the river, I get constant complaints about scrape-offs and infill developments because there's so much private investment, and people want it to stop," she said.

"But on the west side of the district, they'd love to have pop tops and scrape-offs and that kind of investment that indicates that people want to stay in the community."

The candidates mainly offered platitudes about spreading the wealth, encouraging redevelopment in the western "areas of change" and supporting the eastern "areas of stability.

In terms of neighborhood character, three of the four were in agreement:

Connor, Watters and Nevitt said they support private investment but would work to preserve neighborhood character.

The fourth candidate, Dennis Smith, a teacher at South High School and the only Republican in the nonpartisan race, said the development in the east side is "a nice problem to have."

Watters was described as "supported by development interests," while "Nevitt and Connor have received campaign contributions from several labor interests" and "Smith is neither soliciting nor accepting campaign contributions."

Biographical sketches and forums below:

JULIE CONNOR
Age: 40
Occupation: Senior analyst for MacKenzie.
Family: Single, no children.
Etcetera: Speaks Spanish and served in the Peace Corps in Paraguay.

CHRIS NEVITT
Age: 45
Occupation: Political economist. Former executive director of the Front Range Economic Strategy Center.
Family: Married, no children.
Etcetera: Born in Thailand and has lived in Africa, Australia and Russia, among other places.

DENNIS SMITH:
Age: 48
Occupation: Teacher at South High School.
Family: Married, two sons, ages 12 and 8.
Etcetera: Serves on the Denver Parks and Recreation advisory board.

SHELLY WATTERS
Age: 61
Occupation: Former aide to at-large Denver City Councilwoman Carol Boigon and former Councilwoman Joyce Foster.
Family: Married, one adult daughter.
Etcetera: The New York native has lived in Denver for more than 30 years.

Rocky endorses frontrunners

The Rocky Mountain News today issued official endorsements for the May 2007 municipal election. With due caution, they endorsed the frontrunner in every race... except for Council District 8, in which they offered kudos for both Sharon Bailey and Carla Madison:

Mayor: John Hickenlooper
Auditor: Dennis Gallagher
Clerk & Recorder: Stephanie O’Malley
District 3: Paul Lopez
District 4: Peggy Lehmann
District 5: Marcia Johnson
District 7: Chris Nevitt
District 8: Sharon Bailey or Carla Madison
District 9: Judy Montero
At-large: Doug Linkhart and Carol Boigon

CD7: In-depth analysis of campaign finances - and by extension, the race itself

Money tells a lot about a candidate. In that spirit, we have analyzed the contributions in the City Council District 7 race to tell a more complete story of this highly-competitive race.

Currently, Nevitt and Watters are battling for supremacy in terms of total dollars raised:

Chris Nevitt $65,209
Shelly Watters $52,723
Julie Connor $21,800

But of course, such raw numbers tell only a small part of the story. Trends over time and changes within the donor base are also crucial. For instance, even at the beginning of the race, there was a great deal of money ($41,775 to be exact). Since then, the scale of monthly contributions has risen somewhat unevenly: Shelly Watters' contributions have diminished while Nevitt has surged and Julie Connor is increasing the pace.

Chris Nevitt has the lead in the total number of contributions, with an especially big surge in March.

But the most significant difference between the candidates is their reliance on big-ticket donors. Whereas both Julie Connor and Chris Nevitt have a roughly even split among their donor base, more than 80% of the contributors to Shelly Watters campaign have donated $250 or more.

Who are the primary donors financing this race? A small number of stalwarts are the real power behind each candidacy, giving maximum $1000 contributions. Below is a list of "maxed out" donors for each candidate:

Shelly Watters: David Kenney, Brad Buchanan, Doug McKinnon, Elaine Berman, Eric Miller, Evan Makovsky, Foster Graham Milstein & Calisher, Greg Stevinson, Harold Grueskin, Harvey Deutsch, Howard Greinetz, Jay Kamlet, Jennifer Watters, Joyce Foster, Marcia Robinson, Marilyn Schwartz, Mark Goldberg, Medical Property Holdings, Norman Brownstein, Paradise Properties, Sage Hospitality, Sheldon Steinhauser, and Sherri Way

Chris Nevitt: Audrey Nevitt, Robert Nevitt, Carpenters Union 55, Chris Mygatt, Colorado Machinists, CSCEW, Firefighters Local 858, Int'l Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, Int'l Union of Painters, James Mauro Jr, Jessica Brady, Joanie Condoret, Jon Condoret, Journeyman Plumbers, Kristen Stoever, Local 720 PAC, NECA, Refrigeration & AC Assoc, Service Employees Local 105, Sheetmetal Workers, Teamsters Municipal PAC, and Transit Union Workers #1001

Julie Connor: Ajay Kapoor, Denver Police, Michael Stratton, Tom Connor, United Food & Commercial Workers

These folks can no longer give. But will they support another candidate? It appears unlikely. Although we often assume that donors give money to multiple candidates ("playing the odds," as it were), that phenomenon has been remarkably limited in this campaign. Of the 799 contributors, only 14 have (so far) given money to more than one candidate.

David Cole ($200 to both Julie & Shelly, $50 to Chris)
Sherri Way ($1000 to Shelly, $250 to Chris)
Jim Jones ($500 to Shelly, $250 to Chris)
Rich Delanoy ($350 to Shelly, $250 to Julie)
Sharon Withers ($250 to Shelly, $50 to Chris)
Charlotte Winzenburg ($200 to Chris, $50 to Julie)
Gertie Grant ($200 to Chris, $25 to Julie)
Joe Cannata ($100 to both Chris & Shelly)
Lynn Pressnall ($100 to Chris, $75 to Julie)
Jeff Leventhal ($100 to Chris, $25 to Shelly)
Brenda McHenry ($50 to Julie, $25 to Shelly)
Sheila Robinson ($50 to Chris, $40 to Shelly)
Tom Parsons ($50 to both Chris & Julie)
Charlie Busch ($50 to both Julie & Shelly)

In the end, we are left with several strong impressions:

• Chris Nevitt has a strong lead in campaign financing, not only because he has the overall margin but because he has energized a wide base of donors. He also has the most institutional support through a variety of union connections.
  
• Shelly Watters' financial backing is dominated by wealthy, business-oriented contributors in the legal and land-development communities. Her initial lead is now lost, and neither the percentage of "maxed out" donors nor the small number of ordinary contributors bodes well.
  
• Julie Connor has the highest percentage of small dollar donations and the smallest percentage of "maxed out" donors. Her finance options are therefore the most promising, with an opportunity to exploit her attractiveness to ordinary voters and/or squeeze higher dollar values from her base. But this financial gap needs to be closed for uninvolved or undecided voters to hear her message.

CD7: Environmental endorsement for Nevitt

Will Coyne, the program director of Environment Colorado, goes on YouTube to explain why he's endorsing Chris Nevitt for the City Council District 7 seat.

Virtual bull-session at ColoradoPols

The folks over at ColoradoPols.com are having an virtual bull-session about several City Council races. Among the highlights:

• Mountain Man predicts victories for Shelly Watters in CD7 and Carla Madison in CD8. Others tout Chris Nevitt and Julie Connor.
  
• Is CD8 really a "black seat"?
  
• The under-the-radar CD3 race gets some attention.
  
• Cuervo71 dreams of Charlie Brown's defeat in CD6.
  
• Mtnpublius imagines a race between Rick Garcia and Andrew Romanoff in US Congressional District 1.

Ballots Are Dropping

Argue all you want that online media campaigns don't matter, but the Chris Nevitt campaign for Council District 7 has certainly found a creative way to alert potential sponsors that their ballot will soon be in hand.

Visit The Ballots are Dropping on YouTube.

Profile: Chris Nevitt (CD7)

DU Today has published an article outlining the policy positions of city council candidates in three areas. The article by Richard Chapman is entitled "Candidates vie to replace MacKenzie in District 7," and includes profiles of both Council District 6 and Council District 7 candidates.

Below is the response of CD7's Chris Nevitt:

Experience you consider most relevant to Denver City Council service:
The previous five years I spent running the Front Range Economic Strategy Center, a public-interest nonprofit focused on the Denver municipal economy and dedicated to creating better jobs, more affordable housing, and facilitating more robust community participation.

The University of Denver describes itself as a “private institution for the public good.” If the University were to ask you for suggestions as to how this could be accomplished in the years ahead, how would you answer?
I would challenge DU to: a) Strengthen DU’s relationship and deepen its involvement with Denver Public Schools. The expertise of DU’s faculty and staff and the wealth of DU’s facilities could help make DPS the stellar urban school system it can be. b) Bring DU’s intellectual resources more directly to bear on the policy debates and policy development taking place in the public/private arena — among policy nonprofits, in the business community and in government itself.

What are the top three issues affecting District 7 that you intend to tackle after being elected to City Council?
1) Promoting responsible, quality development and protecting the character and quality of life of our neighborhoods from the opposite; 2) Making Denver a better partner with Denver Public Schools; 3) Making Denver a national leader in clean energy and sustainability.

CD8: YouTube video of campaign volunteers

And interesting way to manufacture (and publicize) excitement for a local city council campaign...

Volunteers for Chris Nevitt video on YouTube

Kudos to the organizers.