Who's showing up, and what does it mean?

The votes are coming in at a pretty good clip now, representing 61% of the general election total.

The scariest numbers come from District 3, which at 1,786 votes has barely over half of its anemic general election votes. In this case, lack of interest probably benefits the frontrunner, Paul Lopez.

Dist %ofGenElectVotes
CD3 50%
CD7 68%
CD8 61%

But the most interesting numbers are in Council District 8, where Carla Madison seems to be winning the "get out the vote" effort. Turnout in the whiter western neighborhoods is far heavier than in the minority-populated eastern neighborhoods, which could spell trouble for Sharon Bailey.

Neighborhood %ofGenElectVotes
North Capitol Hill 105%
Central Business 89%
City Park West 86%
Five Points 82%
City Park 66%
Cole 64%
Clayton 57%
Northeast Park Hill 55%
Whittier 54%
Skyland 54%
South Park Hill 47%
North Park Hill 42%

If the candidates maintained the percentages received in each neighborhood in the general election, Sharon Bailey would still win by a margin of 54% to 46%... but that probably isn't reassuring, especially if there is something more behind the Madison rush to the polls than just proactive voters.

Neighborhood analysis, Council District 8

The race for City Council District 8 is remarkable for its geographic and racial fault lines.

GEOGRAPHY: Whereas candidate Carla Madison did better than the frontrunner in virtually all of the western neighborhoods, Sharon Bailey dominated in the eastern neighborhoods.
Since Madison lives about a mile further west than Bailey, this result seems counterintuitive. Other factors may well be in play, including the professional and social networks of the candidates. But the demographic composition of the district is also important.

RACE: The neighborhoods won by African-American candidate Sharon Bailey are overwhelmingly comprised of blacks and Latinos. Overall, those neighborhoods are 85% minority population. Bailey prevailed in only one non-minority neighborhood: Cole, which is just 50.2% white.

Meanwhile, the neighborhoods won by white Carla Madison are just 33% minority. The only minority neighborhood in which she prevailed was Five Points.

It may seem surprising that Madison beat a field of three African-American candidates in Denver's historic black community, but this result underlines racial factors. Even 7 years ago (as gentrification was getting started), just 25% of Five Points residents were black. 27% were white and 43% were Latino.

That mirrors a larger trend in the area. Though Council District 8 has been "the black seat" on City Council for the last 50 years, it's now racially mixed. As of 2000, the district as a whole housed 24,130 African Americans, 21,656 whites, and 18,504 Latinos.

THE FUTURE: What does all this imply about the runoff? One possibility is that it won't be about black and white. Instead, this seat may hinge on Latinos.

Madison did well enough to win in North Capitol Hill and Five Points (23% and 43% Latino), but Bailey crushed in Clayton and Skyland (50% and 22% Latino). The only question is, ¿quién ganará en junio?

POLL: Council District 8 runoff

Opinion Polls & Market Research

Official Disclaimer: Internet polls are NOT scientific and anyone who suggests otherwise is a fool.

Ready, set, spend!

In the upcoming runoff election, the amount of money raised isn't as important as how much they have left.

The figures reflect each candidate's April 24th statement, so we should expect that the candidates spent some of this money before the general election ended. Still, the graph gives a good indicator both of the depth of their fundraising and the potential reserves for their upcoming runoff election.

For instance, although Nevitt raised significantly more funds than Watters, his financial reserves were just $2,400 more. Meanwhile, in District 3, Lopez retained an overwhelming advantage both in total fundraising and reserves.

Predictions found in Westword comics

Westword's Kenny Be has weighed in on the upcoming election, playing on themes of boredom and silliness.

Prospective winners are indicated for all offices, included contested races as Council District 3 (Kathy Sandoval, Paul Lopez), Council District 7 (Shelly Watters, Julie Connor), and Council District 8 (Carla Madison, Darrell Watson).

Then there's the fun made of challengers Waldo Benevidez, Niccolo Casewit, and RJ Ours.

It seems to be all in good fun... and anything that helps to alert folks to the election is a good thing. View the original comic with all its caricatures at Westword's "Worst Case Scenario."

Cole Neighborhood blog urges you to vote for...

The ostensible goal of Cole Neighborhood blog's "Get Your Denver Election Ballots In!" is to increase participation:

It's shocking to me how little action some residents take in improving their neighborhood - whether it be participating in their neighborhood association meetings, volunteering, getting involved with neighborhood safety, or even more basically, VOTING.

The author ties this lack of involvement to the endemic difficulty of getting Denverites to participate in any form of local government:

One couple is never short on complaints about Cole--Whether it be the crime problem, the trash problem, the condition of their neighbor's home, etc.--Yet despite numerous efforts on my part to get them involved in the neighborhood, it has been somewhat like keeping a candle lit in a gusty windstorm.

Similarly, we've had neighborhood meetings as large as 45 people, but inevitably, the next one shrinks back down to the same 4 or 5 involved residents. How do these people expect things to change in Cole? It takes a few, committed individuals, some luck, and some momentum. But it starts by getting involved, rather than just complaining.

Yet to us, the more interesting part comes when the unnamed blogger BigSprinter offered endorsements. In addition to John Hickenlooper, the site endorses Dennis Gallagher and Stephanie O'Malley for somewhat facile reasons (e.g., "because the Denver Post endorses them, and for reasons that make sense to me.").

More substantive remarks are directed at the candidacies of Doug Linkhart and Carol Campbell:

Doug Linkhart seems dissatisfied in both Mr. Hickenlooper's and outgoing Councilmember Elbra Wedgeworth's track record in tackling the many issues North Denver metro neighborhoods face. Additionally, he seems sincerely interested in "filling in" and redeveloping the blighted "horseshoe" that still rings the redeveloped downtown to the north (and of which Cole belongs). Similarly, he shares my belief that the North Denver neighborhoods like Cole, Whittier, and Curtis Park at this point have enough homeless, drug and alcohol-related shelters--It's time for Highlands, and some of the other urban Denver 'hoods to do their part and host some of these important facilities.

Carol Campbell similarly seems ready to tackle head-on the crime and disorder issues that plaque urban Denver. I applaud her for consistently not skirting the issues, or candy-coating her opinions. For example, she's not afraid to speak out about the dim-witted Denver tradition of spending police dollars every year to facilitate Cinco de Mayo cruising. Is she being racist in speaking out about it? Come on, people. I don't care if they're Starbucks-drinking yuppies blasting Yanni in their 3-series BMW's, cruising is a big problem, that adversely affects residents and businesses along the Federal corridor. I lived over there, and know first-hand. So, because Carol Campbell is a straight-shooter that has the interests of responsible, law-abiding urban Denver residents in mind, she gets my vote.

Finally, the site endorses Carla Madison in Council District 8. The explanation was negative insofar as BigSprinter was troubled by the candidacies of Darrell Watson, Greg Rasheed, and Sharon Bailey, for some well-considered reasons.

Which brings us to Carla. Why do I like Carla? One, she isn't a good public speaker. I know, you're probably laughing now, but while I wish she'd practice her public speaking skills a bit more so more people would embrace her, I feel that what you see is what you get with her--And that makes all the difference too me.

She also supports Broken Windows, stimulating redevelopment while maintaining the historical and architectural character of the neighborhood, and she has consistently attended neighborhood and Cole-Whittier Against Crime meetings (not just the one where all the candidates were in attendance to give their sales pitch). Not to mention that she has a strong track-record at the neighborhood level as president and involved member of her City Park neighborhood association.

Whomever you pick, VOTE! And the bottom line is realistically that any of the above candidates will be an improvement over Elbra Wedgeworth, who checked out years ago.

Video Interview: Carla Madison (CD8)

Colorado Confidential's Mark Mehringer interviewed Carla Madison, City Council candidate in Council District 8.

She discusses her background in physical therapy and discusses some of the most important issues to her, including zoning, affordable housing, and neighborhood preservation.

Youth was another major focus, including public schools and gangs.

A new question also popped up in this interview: "what is it like to be a candidate?" Madison speaks of the roller coaster experience, with great highs such as the Denver Post and Rocky Mountain News endorsements.

Later questions went to business needs, vacancy rates, and the like.

Denver Direct posts impugning the Madison candidacy

Does Denver Direct have it in for the Carla Madison campaign? A series of negative posts this week seem to run a one-note theme.

The Darrell Watson campaign has previously indicated that the author of Denver Direct supports their candidate. However, the site does not indicate open support of any other candidate, and the posts (which are listed below) provide objective data, so visitors are welcome to interpret the posts however they choose.

April 17th - "Flag This" about Madison's use of the Colorado flag into campaign materials.

April 18th - Financial hope and resignation in the City Park West Neighborhood Association, suggest improprieties in the Madison's leadership.

April 19th - "The Overlay Railroad" questioning whether Madison "implemented a 30-block overlay with 100% approval."

Update 4/24: A new post has now been added, with the author converting an informal interview after the Denver Democrat's spaghetti dinner into a series of questions and answers. While we were not there, "Why are You Being So Mean to Me?" seems to offer rather unfair characterizations of candidate Madison's statements, and thus strikes us as more attack than journalism.

Tidbits from Council District 8

Denver Direct offers several tidbits about the election, including Harold Brewer's support for Darrell Watson and a photo of a Carla Madison yard sign placed in a rather inauspicious location.

Rocky endorses frontrunners

The Rocky Mountain News today issued official endorsements for the May 2007 municipal election. With due caution, they endorsed the frontrunner in every race... except for Council District 8, in which they offered kudos for both Sharon Bailey and Carla Madison:

Mayor: John Hickenlooper
Auditor: Dennis Gallagher
Clerk & Recorder: Stephanie O’Malley
District 3: Paul Lopez
District 4: Peggy Lehmann
District 5: Marcia Johnson
District 7: Chris Nevitt
District 8: Sharon Bailey or Carla Madison
District 9: Judy Montero
At-large: Doug Linkhart and Carol Boigon

Financial questions regarding Festival of the Arts

Denver Direct is leading a discussion about potential financial irregularities between the City Park West Neighborhood Association and the City Park Festival of the Arts, as led by Paul Weiss (husband of Carla Madison).

First, the questions are raised and then conversation ensues.

Diversity in the City Council District 8 campaign

Finally, an informative article in the Denver Post regarding the shape of our upcoming election, focusing on issues and illuminating heretofore unknown challengers.

Hopefully the dailies realize that this is a mail-in ballot, and they can't wait until the weekend before the election to provide fuller coverage.

Constituents in Council District 8 should definitely read this article by George Merritt. It's entitled "Diversity shaping election."

POLL: City Council District 8

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Denver Politics endorses... Sharon Bailey in Council District 8

Council District 8 has been filled with brimstone and fire. At the beginning of the race, City Park West representative Carla Madison seemed to hold the lead. But the Darrell Watson campaign came roaring back, gaining powerful endorsements and raising lots of cash.

And then came Sharon Bailey. Although late to the campaign race, she brought a level of understanding and gravitas previously unappreciated. As a former elected Education Board representative and current employee in the Auditor's office, Sharon Bailey seems to understands what it is to govern.

If we were calculating folks, we'd look at the financial disclosures and decide between Darrell Watson and Carla Madison. But voting isn't a horserace, and City Council isn't a gamble. Considering the best person available for the job, we select Sharon Bailey as your next City Council representative.

Carla Madison, Darrell Watson, and Greg Rasheed may well climb to greater posts in Denver city governance... and we hope all do. But the most seasoned, intelligent, and worthy candidate for Council District 8 is Sharon Bailey.

CD8: Watson on national coverage

Keith Boykin is the host of BET's My Two Cents, the best-selling author of three New York Times listed books, and a regular commentator on CNN's Paula Zahn Now."

And now, he's endorsed Denver City Council candidate Darrell Watson. In the interview, he indicates that he is supported by The Kenney Group, Denver's most savvy political consulting firm.

Earlier this month, the Watson campaign sent out a misleading press release regarding campaign finances. For the first time, Darrell Watson himself engages in the process, as described below:

Boykin: How much have you raised?

Watson: We’ve raised $34,000 and I believe our nearest opponent raised $26,000.

As of the March 2006 reporting period, the Watson campaign had raised $31,554.91 and Carla Madison had raised $26,385.99. Might he have been comparing his own April figures against Madison's March figures? That's a bit disingenuous but not unprecedented for this campaign.

And then finally:

Boykin: So if I come to the convention will you give me a hookup?

Watson: [He almost says yes, and then laughs.] I’ll make sure you’re treated well.

Unseemly, but certainly not important for the voting public.

Political force in the Home Builders Association of Metro Denver

I have been openly (sometime unreservedly) critical of the Denver dailies. But occasionally critical and hard-working reporters do slip through the cracks. One such reporter is Stuart Steers of the Rocky Mountain News.

It takes more than a little gusto to rip through the campaign statements over every political candidate for municipal elections in Denver. But if you want to understand the power of such powerful organizations as the Home Builders Association of Metro Denver, that's what it takes.

Especially when one of the most important tasks of the next Denver City Council is going to be implementing the recommended changes of the Zoning Code Taskforce.

Review Steers' article entitled "Developers build campaign coffers: Elected officials bound to have say in major projects." Specific mention is provided to council candidates Marcia Johnson, Carol Boigon, Jeanne Faatz, Peggy Lehmann, Doug Linkhart, Shelly Watters, Carla Madison, and Charlie Brown.

CD8: Carla Madison and accusations of neglect

Denver Direct is concerned about recent events in the City Park West Neighborhood Association. An article today indicates that organization president and Council District 8 candidate Carla Madison has canceled the Association's meetings for December, March, and April, and conducted what he called "a questionable election" in January.

See the full details at "City Park West Neighborhood Association Goes Dark."

CD8: Candidates address issues of Latinos in Council District 8

Denver Direct caught an impassioned audience member asking candidates in Council District 8 what they would do regarding the growing Latino community in the Park Hill neighborhood.

Sharon Bailey, Carla Madison, Darrell Watson, and Greg Rasheed all responded. View the comments at "What's Up With That?"

Virtual bull-session at ColoradoPols

The folks over at ColoradoPols.com are having an virtual bull-session about several City Council races. Among the highlights:

• Mountain Man predicts victories for Shelly Watters in CD7 and Carla Madison in CD8. Others tout Chris Nevitt and Julie Connor.
  
• Is CD8 really a "black seat"?
  
• The under-the-radar CD3 race gets some attention.
  
• Cuervo71 dreams of Charlie Brown's defeat in CD6.
  
• Mtnpublius imagines a race between Rick Garcia and Andrew Romanoff in US Congressional District 1.

CD08: Darrell Watson press release mangles the facts

The Darrell Watson campaign continues its miscues.

Yesterday Wanda James sent out a press release entitled "Darrell Watson The Strongest Candidate District 8." The evidence for this statement was found in campaign finances, with Watson raising over $19,000 in March, more money than any of his competitors had raised during the entire race.

Trouble is, that's factually incorrect.

1) The Watson campaign did not raise "over $19,000" during March. The exact figure was $18,347.55. Why they would fudge the numbers like that is beyond me.

2) Numbers for the other candidates were also wrong. They claim "the closest competitor has raised less than $17,000 for the entire race." In fact, Carla Madison has raised $26,385.99, according to the latest disclosure forms.

3) Not only did Watson fail to overwhelm his competition by the generosity of his followers, he didn't even win the monthly battle. Watson's $18,347.55 for the month of March came in behind Carla Madison's $18,873.99.

4) Finally, instead of showing that "Watson shows huge lead in fundraising" (as claimed in the article's subtitle), the March numbers showed only a slim financial lead: $31,554.91 vs $26,385.99.

Perhaps the Watson folks were being disingenuous, trying to compare Watson's April numbers with the other candidate's numbers only up to March. Or perhaps they were discounting a gift from Carla Madison to her own campaign - even though Watson gave money to his own campaign as well. All such gifts from candidates are listed under the same "Form A, Report of Contributions" as used for external contributions.

Whatever the case, the Watson campaign clearly had access to the correct information. Their financial disclosure was stamped 2 hours after Carla Madison's disclosure and the press release came out 20 hours later (just 3 hours before this posting). Yet they chose to be "Clintonian" in their parsing... or as the British would say, "too clever by half."

The full numbers are available online, and may be compared with full text of the Watson press release below.

For Further Information Contact:
Wanda James
(303) 388-8797
info@electwatson.com

DARRELL WATSON THE STRONGEST CANDIDATE DISTRICT 8
Watson shows huge lead in fundraising and in endorsements

Denver, CO – Thursday, April 5, 2007 – Denver County Clerk and Recorder reported today that District 8 candidate Darrell Watson has raised over $33,000 during course of his campaign. Over $19,000 was raised in this reporting period alone! His closest competitor has raised less than $17,000 for the entire race

The Watson campaign is also showing a tremendous amount of support in key endorsements including labor, business and elected officials. Former Chair of the Colorado Democratic Party, Chris Gates has recently endorsed Watson.

“The support we have received has been incredible,” stated Watson. “We are gathering widespread support from all over the district and all over the city.”

About Darrell Watson

Darrell is a 13-year resident of City Council District 8 and a life-long Democrat. As President of the Whittier Neighborhood Association, Darrell fought to protect the character and history of his neighborhood, by insisting on enforcement of zoning ordinances, supervising the planting of over 350 trees, as well as coordinating the revitalization of all five neighborhood parks.

Darrell has served as the chair of the Biased Policing Task Force and forged a partnership between the police, community, and elected officials to create a new training program for Denver police officers, as well as to increase community policing across Denver. He has also served as Chair of the Legislative Committee of the Colorado Democratic Party, on the Board of Trustees for the Denver Foundation, and on the Land Use Transportation Advisory Committee.

Supporting an increased economic opportunity within Council District 8, Watson collaborated with the community, developers, and city leaders to build the first residential mixed use property in Whittier along the 30th and Downing Light Rail. This development created affordable housing, much-needed retail space, and the home of the Whittier Neighborhood Community Center.

About the 8th District

City Council District 8 sits north of Colfax Road, and south of 40th Avenue. It extends from Speer to Holly Street and many neighborhoods including Five Points, City Park, Cole, Whittier, Clayton, Skyland, North Capitol Hill and Northeast Park Hill. Elbra Wedgeworth is our current representative, but is unable to run again due to term limits.